Where house prices are set to rise and fall | The Business | ABC NEWS
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As the discussion continues about how much of an impact the federal government's property tax changes have already had on house prices, the Treasurer sought to clarify comments by housing minister Clare O'Neill that the market is already in the midst of a "correction".
Bad news
Jim Chalmers said the minister meant to use the term correction "colloquially" rather than in a technical sense.
A technical correction means a fall in market prices of between 10 to 20 percent.
There's no budget measures that warrant landlord's to raise rents - every current investor's asset is grandfathered. Any rise is avaricious opportunism.
Domain's chief residential economist Nicola Powell says while house prices are expected to fall further than they already have, Domain isn't forecasting that they enter correction territory.
The property insight firm has released its housing forecast for the coming financial year. Domain's report reveals the housing downturn is likely to be led by Sydney and Melbourne, with a decline of 8% in Melbourne and 7% in Sydney.
The economy needs business investment to improve productivity and drive growth. You can't do that when trillions is being invested in dormant assets like housing.
Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide are expected to still grow in the coming year, but at a slower rate than in the recent years.
That forecast from Domain is based on interest rates holding steady at 4.35% for the remainder of 2026, and a rate cut in mid-2027.
Sheās stupid thick as they come
Property insight firm Cotality also released its Pain and Gain Report, which says the national resale profitability rate saw its highest level - at a record $377,000 - in more than 20 years.
Cotality's head of research Gerard Burg says those who sold for a loss were more likely to be recent buyers, with many purchasing around the market peak in late 2021 and early 2022.
Property analysts such as Cotality always use positive words to describe property price increase (i.e. GAIN), and negative words to describe price decrease (i.e. PAIN) because they have a vested interest in property prices increasing.
I wish our non-biased journalists could reframe the discussion during these interviews, as falling house prices are what Australia currently needs to solve our current biggest issue, housing affordability.
Saying something like "Sounds like Melbourne is leading the way on housing affordability, bringing it under a median of $1m for the first time in 5 years, which is a great achievement"
The median loss remained unchanged at $45,000.
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I feel for the poor renters, as she indicates towards the end of the interview that there will be less rental housing causing short and medium term pain for renters- very sad - they are the ones with the least ability to buy.
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Not enough of a price correction to be honest.
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šØšØNew real estate agents stratagy ..list price 100k more and then drop down to 100k after a month..COLES Stratagy. They think the buyers are blind.....worst market for sellers ...they are doomed
More User Perspectives
I forecast the government is stuffing it up and sowing the seeds of the next housing crisis
@glengriffin792Lack of supply has always been illusional, economists past explanations for prices rises have always been the lack of supply / high immigration blah blah. There has always been plenty of empty apartments and houses scattered in all capital cities that are not rented out purely because of negative gearing and favourable tax policies for residential housing. Now that most of the CGT and Negative gearing perks are gone. Let's see if we still have a lack of supply.
@FinancialWizKidRents skyrocket, new buyers in negative equity. But Labor and their followers want you to believe this is good for the country š
@commanderkeen3787Government need money,they donāt care about house price at all. Thatās why they did all these changes..If they really want to slow the market,they should have ban people using equity for purchasing another property
@IqfdhujgrcjmykjbtgrfcThis is what most wanted and needed. Hopefully now a resetting of housing be about having a roof over your head and not a n profit centre
@Satya2btrueA lot of people are using rising prices and the NEW equity it produces to go even further into debtā¦ debt on top of debt is not going to end well.
@zenmachine50you may as well be asking a real estate agent for a forecast
@kent3WI am starting to feel like government is a party that stands only for one thing: enrich landlords by increasing rent prices. I can barely afford anything for my family anymore since 2022. Rent is eating up most of my pay and the leftovers are to pay for skyrocketing utility bills. Its getting worse by the day and now he wants to take more of our hard earned money by cgt
@InfinityIsland2203Isnāt this what we want? People can buy houses now? Also commbank forecasts it to be 3% could be more but I doubt by that much if the biggest bank weāve got is saying 3.
@LLTRBABYImagine your ABC completely ignoring the regions. Thereās a couple of ppl who donāt live in your beloved capital cities.
@MelbaAustraliaA moderate decline followed by 30 years of growth well below wage growth is probably the best overall outcome we can hope for but i don't think we will be that fortunate.
@seanross9175Australia bet its economy and investment money on property and now lost! Australians' ridiculous obsession with profiting from residential property has come back to bite.
In a huge country with a small population.
"Australiaās housing stock was valued at $11.3 trillion as of March 31, 2025, with the average home worth exactly $1 million.
Australiaās property market is worth more than twice that of the US, making it one of the worldās most expensive."
A correction is overdue. Investment needs to be in something that actually adds to Australia's GDP.
It's amazing how Australians are the second wealthiest people on earth, behind Luxembourg, based on their salary, property equity, and superannuation.
Systems broken
@MrLusciousmeatPicton 2571 - Up to 25% decline from a recognised 2022 peak, I'm an agent & its happened already, if analysts are somewhat correct this could steepen that decline measurably to 30 - 35% on non marginal 'stand out' sale results.
@reside9891I welcome house price falls, not enough focus is given on the impact of huge mortgages on household spending which actually stimulates the broader economy. Throwing all your money into housing is terrible for the economy, housing is not a liquid asset - if we continue on the path then we're heading towards a form of housing feudalism.
@contactluke80renters couldn't keep up with these derelict holes that investors are trying to force on the market, and so banks reached their lending limit. It has always been the case that between the limit on deduction from wage taxes (even if very large) from negative gearing, goods inflation for maintenance (or whatever landlords try to convince you is maintenance), service inflation from property management and body corporates, price inflation passing through to council rates, interest rate hikes specifically targeting interest-only investors, 15 years of wage stagnation.... it's simply not numerically possible that renters can pay more, and so the entire investment 'strategy' falls apart.
their problem is not policy it's basic accounting. but like always with these entitled bludgers on their handouts, property investors ran out of other people's money to spend, and now theyre malding about it. stealing the youth and futures of 3 generations wasn't enough for them. im happy they are losing money, i hope they continue to make losses and haemorrhage equity holding overleveraged asbestos ridden $120,000 renos necessary before it's safe for a child pos slums.
A drop of close to 10% nationally would be in the same range as when APRA started enforcing rules around interest-only lending in 2017 in response to the banking royal commission. Worth keeping in perspective.
@jarrodbright5231People hoping the bottom to fall out of the market might be sorely disappointed.
@fatgimNow we need to regulate Airbnb's, they're what's causing the long term rental issues, by eating up rental stock
Hotels & motels, caravan parks, camp grounds are regulated but Airbnb's aren't that's crazy!!!! & where's that taxing of Airbnb's???
We are the peak of the property hyperinflation caused by the CGT 50% changes back in 1999 .... when before that housing was for living in
Guess what, we are going back to property is for use, not wealth creation, surprise, surprise
30% price correction in Blacktown from the peak.
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