What is Positive EV Sports Betting? (Better than Arbitrage!) (using OddsJam)

the way you explained mispriced lines finally clicked. i always thought it was just arbing. i’ve been messing around with Optimal Bet app too.

Watching in 2022: I don't want to do positive EV instead of arbitrage, I can put $300 on a arbitrage bet risk free but it's too risky to put more than $30 on a positive EV bet.
Watching in 2026: Every time I try to place a $300 bet on PointsBet, Ladbrokes, Neds, Unibet they tell me that the maximum bet for this market is $30, maybe positive EV isn't such a bad strategy.

Love this. Can't wait to get started. Heavy options trader here so I love this.

Everyone does the same thing... They do all the sign up bonuses... They arbitrage... Then they get limited and promo banned... Then they do some +EV and then realize it's not worth it so they have to make a YouTube channel telling people how to make money lol

You'll be limited by the bookie before you can hit large numbers

I don't think sports betting is worth the time. Even the best betters Alex Monahan and other sports betters on Juice Reel, are averaging about an 8% annual ROI. That is solid, but why would you spend 4 hours or so a day and the headache for only an 8% annual ROI? Keep in mind those are the BEST sports gamblers too. You can get that return in the stock market easily with a couple button clicks just one time. Please let me know I am missing something.

Dam man i knew i shoulda paid attention in math class

how do you bet on American books in australia ??

The coin toss odds were intentionally misrepresented from the true odds of a 50/50 bet so you could take advantage with EV. Sports betting agency's odds rarely misrepresent the true odds, so taking the EV bet constantly will surely lose you money in the long run.

What odds variances should I be placing positive EV bets at?

Great job on this video! Learned a lot and really enjoyed the presentation. Keep it coming! 😊

Really interesting one more time, all these tips even with oddsjam can work if i live in Europe or Asia ?

Above all you need Skills and Time, then you can invest !

So on the sharp books are you always looking for 50/50 odds? And then comparing your betting book to find the discrepancies on those alone? Or is it discrepancies at any odds? If there’s a 70/30 odds on a sharp book but your bet book has a +EV for the 30 bet do you still take that? Or does it not apply because it’s only a 30% chance of hitting and for this to work over time it needs to be 50%? I hope that made sense lol

my tip, to practice either one of these techniques start by betting only pennies, most books allow bets of just .10, and increase gradually as your comfort increases, remember too that there is learning curve to learning the software physically, and my experience is ev betting does work, i started betting only cents and gradually increasing to now top bets are up to about $15-20. Also, i think Shane is the best teacher, others know the how it works but are poor at teaching.

i love your explanation. thank you for this! i'm a new subsrciber!

Listen to me, I am very smart and I’m Asian. It’s statistics, you bet and you win regardless, nobody has ever been as smart as me. I’m so smart, that’s why I can give the strategy away for free because I’m super smart. Anyway, buy Oddsjam for 200 bucks a month and buy your wins. Everyone’s doing it! It’s like free money. We are looking to take about 1k minimum from any sucker who will buy in. We totally don’t work for the casino and sell all this juicy data. We mostly just use the system that we sell to you because shovels.
I am smart, and I am Asian. So like, yeah.

hi there

is this system still working or have the bookies banned you?

Here's some reality check: the fact that all this info is now given away for free means the opportunity is long past. This kid is now selling courses instead. Educational nonetheless but clearly the bookmakers will not stay by watching their business lose money. The very fact that there's automated software to auto find arbitrage/ev for you is proof that the opportunity is long past. Who's to say that this oddsjam software isn't owned by the same bookmakers? It's just a piece of software. Once again, real money making opportunities are fleeting and known by relative few ppl. When those ppl give away their cash cow for free, it's time to move on, these first movers can sell 'courses' to cash in on the late comers. Just a reality check. Nonetheless learning probabilties is still very useful for life and will help you become some of the first ppl to identify new opportunities

your calculation is flawed! When bookers give a 3x probability of winning to a team, that means that they are less likely to win and not a 50%/50% chance!

F this. I bet $100 us everytime win big or lose it. There is no emotion in do all this math plus I not a asian.

You made 40k doing day job... Good for you sir. Isnt this like minimal wage in us?

Question 🎉 after a fair bit of learning and understanding the maths and how everything works, I've started to trial pos EV two days ago. I used oddsjam, was super thorough that the odds are reflected and correct. I placed 48 bets, all positive EV (also context, I obviously did it with a small bankroll of £300 so it doesn't affect me in case it doesn't work out). 32 of them are settled now and I'm down by £55. With the pending upcoming bets I still have potential payout of £116/that what I could be up. However, looking at the number of bets already settled and to the ones pending, it looks like the trend is a clear negative.
Now, is that just something that happens quite a bit or was is this just an outliar of many bets gone wrong?. Almost 50 bets seems like a good sample size to take advantage of the positive EV maths so I thought with a large betting pool I shouldn't be down that much, even if I'm unlucky?

Surely this is dependent on accurately assessing the true probabilities of the outcomes. This then comes down to interpretation and is subjective. A fair coin has a known and constant probability. So on this basis Arb betting would make more sense to me than +ve EV … unless you have an edge in accurately determining the true probabilities of events.

What am I missing ?

i have always wanted to try this ; i think i will finnaly do

Probabilities suggest that a positive EV bet will pay out way less than 50% of the time

i never knew ll this quite inspiring

I think the benefit for me with arbitrage is that I can know for sure that I will gain money without having to estimate the EV. EV tends to require assumptions that are hard to verify.

I've tried arbitrage betting before. While I did make some profits, finding winning bets was just too challenging.

Int ev bet same me any player just randomly betting on a team which has higher odds?

Thr is no much Sports Arbitrage opportunities in India, Which is very unlucky for me.

Well arbitrage betting is maths but this is actually gambling. You can't decide real life event possibilities. I like the idea of ev betting but in the end it's just gambling.

How do they calculate the ev if they do not know the winning chances?

Do you have a telegram channel

Is it possible to know what video I should watch FIRST before all? I keep stopping the video to watch another.... I rather learn left to right, instead of right to left...

EV is is based that ur actual calculations are actually correct 😂 pure bullshit

+EV betting seems like regular sports betting with extra steps.

It seems good in the coinflip example because you know the odds are be 50/50, but you can't know for a fact what the odds should be in a match
How do you determine accurately that a book is overpaying a certain outcome?

You are now betting on what the odds should be instead of on your favorite team

Hey dude quick question, can I use a vpn if I dont live in USA?

But how do I know, if a bet has plus EV??

U forgot the compounding effect you can use in arbitrage, since there is no risk of losing your money.

dude.... that's just gambling, there's nothing "smart" or mathematical about it, you're just gambling on the one with better odds