Top Economist: This Is What "Always" Happens Before a Housing Market Crash
Video Overview & Insights
📚 Learn 50+ years of Real Economics in only 7 weeks. Apply here:
📚 Learn 50+ years of Real Economics in only 7 weeks. Apply here:
https://www.stevekeen.com/Australianhousingcrash
(Apply this week and get my 3-Book Rebel Economist Bundle as a Free Bonus. Plus if you're fully approved by my team, get Ravel© - my proprietary economic visualization software I use in my YouTube videos; to predict the economy, like I did years before the 2008 Financial Crash happened).
https://www.stevekeen.com/Australianhousingcrash
(Apply this week and get my 3-Book Rebel Economist Bundle as a Free Bonus. Plus if you're fully approved by my team, get Ravel© - my proprietary economic visualization software I use in my YouTube videos; to predict the economy, like I did years before the 2008 Financial Crash happened).
kEeP bUyiNg iN PeRtH gUyS!
Top Economist Steve Keen exposes how “help-to-buy” style policies in Australia (and beyond) inflated house prices, enriched landlords, and pushed home ownership out of reach for younger generations. Using BIS data and Ravel demos, Steve shows why the real driver isn’t “shortage” — it’s mortgage debt growth and the political choice to treat housing as an asset class, not a basic need.
In this hard-hitting breakdown, you’ll discover:
Whats this BOOMER on about?
China kept Australia's and the World's ecconomy going.
✅ Why first-home buyer grants and LMI waivers pump prices instead of helping buyers
✅ How mortgage debt growth (and its acceleration) drives house prices in multiple countries
😅John Howard and Peter Costello caused this
✅ Why the US subprime story is only mid-pack globally — and why Australia, Canada, NZ, UK went further
✅ The landlord windfall effect: policies that look helpful individually but are disastrous collectively
Henry George enters the room
✅ Ownership reality check: outright owners down, mortgages and renters up since the late 1980s
✅ How “credit-based demand” props up GDP while trapping households in decades of debt
"Most political parties are in the pocket of the finance sector" says it all, in both Australia and the UK, and probably most of the western world. We also have family in Newcastle, Aus. Having moved from a Sydney suburb a couple of decades ago, for family and financial reasons. The world working for the finance sector instead of banks working for society is where we are through neoliberal financialisation. Thanks for your insight, Prof.
✅ Why politicians keep doing it — and what a price-down policy agenda would require
KEY INSIGHTS:
gotta keep that GDP+ ... so immigration doubling works and sub prime loans for everyone! will only take a 6% fall in prices to go into negative equity.
• Treating housing as an asset class has produced real house price rises of several multiples since the 1970s in most advanced economies.
• Rising mortgage debt causes rising house prices; the tightest links show up when you track changes in the change of mortgage debt.
This is the issue with Keynesian economics and government intervention - it creates inflation - and if the government just allowed the market to correct itself without interference, house prices would correct themselves.
Bond yields have been rising massively in Australia, and this will obviously impact the cost of credit. A correction should be welcomed, but who knows what the government will do to prevent the natural impact of corrected prices.
• Australia repeatedly “saved” prices with grants and boosts, shifting credit cycles without fixing affordability.
• The result: fewer outright owners, more mortgaged households, more renters — and stagnation as income services debt instead of spending and investment.
As a home owner house prices mean nothing to me. It’s somewhere to live. If property drops 40% any house I want to move to will be 40% less. The change over that matters.
This isn’t “supply and demand” on a whiteboard. It’s the math of bank-created credit meeting political incentives — and the bill landing on younger households.
Want to learn 50 years of real economics in 7 weeks?
Ironically the US, the spiritual home of hyperfinancialization, still officially refers to housing as 'shelter'.
Apply to Steve’s Seven-Week Rebel Economist Challenge: https://stevekeen.com
Bonus: Ravel access is included for accepted students who join.
In the UK cars are disproportionately large to the house where the car owners live. For example, I live on a street of two bed terraced houses
30 years ago the street was occupied by people on ordinary to low wages. The residents in the last 20 years have increasingly come from a higher salary level. For example, Solicitors, Doctors and Accountants. The cars bear no parity to the houses. Pretty obvious really.obvious really.👍
What’s your view — should governments target lower house prices rather than “help-to-buy” boosts? Add your thoughts below.
Subscribe for reality-based economics
We can thank John howard for the mental disposition ' you will be all be small business men oh and women ' he infected the social matrix with the promise of riches , the model of unregulated capitalism has shown how inequality is constructed and social responsibility is voided , with elitist hansonista's getting traction next thing Scotty from marketing will be re-birthed as a one nation celebrity
Like if this clarified why affordability keeps getting worse
Share to help others see what’s really driving prices
I've been saying this for over thirty years.
----
Who is Dr. Steve Keen?
If the Australian government wanted to reduce house prices, they could. They don't want to. It's not in their political interest.
Dr. Steve Keen is an economist known for accounting-consistent, data-driven models that explain how bank money and private debt drive booms, busts, and asset bubbles. Creator of the Minsky and Ravel tools, he focuses on real-world dynamics instead of textbook myths — essential for engineers, finance professionals, and anyone who wants operational clarity over ideology.
-----
mate, the fact that you reckon we escaped the GFC due to housing shows how biased and blinkered your view is - tsk tsk. Another economist that got some spotlight and now continuously repeats the same narrative.
📚 Learn 50+ years of Real Economics in only 7 weeks. Apply here:
https://www.stevekeen.com/Australianhousingcrash
30 percent drop and they will still be unafordable.
(Apply this week and get my 3-Book Rebel Economist Bundle as a Free Bonus. Plus if you're fully approved by my team, get Ravel© - my proprietary economic visualization software I use in my YouTube videos; to predict the economy, like I did years before the 2008 Financial Crash happened).
-----
The Australian housing property market is not an obsession, it's a psychosis!!! I have come to the (very unpopular) conclusion that all land should be owned by Australia (the country, not the government) in perpetual trust so rather than buying a property you can only lease a property (eg, 99 year lease). So rather buying and selling a property you would buy and sell leases. The price of the lease is determined by how many years are left on the lease vs property improvements or deterioration. Whoever holds the lease when it expires has first option to renew it (from Australia). If the current holder does not want to renew the lease the property reverts back to Australia and a new 99 lease is offered on the market.
#stevekeen #housingcrisis #housingmarket #housingcrisis #firsthomebuyer #realestate #assetinflation #ravel #economics #creditcycles
I've never heard this guy be right.
More User Perspectives
Australia is lucky to be big to give people a chance to buy in towns where houses are afford able no?
@andreaskyriacou1173Of course prices are high because everybody wants to buy in major cities no?
@andreaskyriacou1173Prices haven't gone be up now. Since the new rules.
I have seen many drop in price. About time!
This is due to the fact that we do not have a manufacturing sector. This is the reason why Australian dollars are a complete disaster and the primary reason for us to pay significantly more for imported goods than any other developed country. Criminals will always remain criminals.
@AA-gu1vvChange government then stop emigration
@krys-e4h100%
@peterzing7483Houses arising because there is no increase in supply for example for this resist granny flats etc no?
@andreaskyriacou1173Who is he to say what we should invest in?
@TheRodj6Banks are laughing laughing all the way to the bank no?
@andreaskyriacou1173Listen to this man!
He knows what he's talking about!
Does anyone remember the Sub-Prime mortgage crisis, in the USA, in 2008?
High house prices is a crime against our young people!
Australia hasn't seen its day-of-reconning yet!
Wake up!
Never trust property-developers!
Not realy the policy us working as intended....
@aniina99Everyone I grew up with. Every. Single. One, all had dreams of doing things that were meaningful and new with their lives, and are now slaves to real estate in one way or another. Either under the banner head of passive income, or saving for the best years of their lives to buy a house while renting.
I have never wanted to own property of any kind. I can see what it does. The disassociation from environment is the key malignance of our race. It won't end unless we can reintegrate the cultivation of something being inherent in the ownership(custodianship) of it.
Steve has gotten it wrong since the nineties when they bring him and that fellow from Brazil out pushing another book but hey he might eventually get it right
Statistics and economic forcast are easily manipulated by where they take reference point from
All because of forced mass immigration that is being done against the will of the people. These cowards will never acknowledge the elephant in the room.
@GerinPhilsJust a correction. We avoided 2008 recession thanks to the demand for our resources from China and not because of the lending policies.😊
@sergueimikhail9654Australian house prices depend only on one variable - income/GDP per capita. Interest rates can put some pressure on house prices only after hurting our economic growth, which what is happening right now. As soon as RBA stops their nonsense interest rate hikes, we’ll see another housing boom. There will be no effect from cutting on negative gearing or capital gains tax.😊
@sergueimikhail9654Actually, you hold the title and you own the house. The bank just holds a registered mortgage over the property as security for the loan. If the property goes up in value by $200k, you keep that equity, not the bank.
@bossmoneySame problem in New Zealand .
@jack80kiwiAbsolutely 100% right
@phatlaz1974Free housing is the only way to bring it down. 3 million tiny homes in the US, given to the unhoused then disabled. Then the market can correct.
@LongDefiantDo his house prices are about to collapse? I posted the birth rate for your country which is exactly what it is for. The United States in the United States. Last year a country of 334 million people. We had slightly over 3 million live births. This is the 11th year of continuous decline in birth rates. FYI, if no one's having children, no one will want a house in the suburbs with high school taxes and long distances from the inner city where people work homes in the suburbs are going to go begging and eventually be abandoned like they are in Japan where everyone clusters around six large cities in the rest of the country empties out these the speaker are on. This program is 100% correct though he doesn't bring up demographics. Demographics is the driving force
@jamesbarry1673So this guy reckons we can fix the housing cost problem caused by government interference by even more government interference???
As an hypothetical -- what would have happened if we'd had that recession back in 2008? How did places that did endure recession come out of it in terms of housing costs?
It's a lazy dollar, it's a game!
It's called monopoly.
Thank past governments for this huge disaster.
Blow where? You cant buyland and build for under 900k thats set the median.
@Mosesk1988Except banks don't want to lend for business or new ventures or innovation or R&D, because Australia is one of the WORST commercial environments in the developed world. And that's due to government - red tape, green tape, endless regulations that are endlessly changing, and taxation out the wazoo. So of course banks only want to lend for housing in Australia, it's far more reliable in terms of demand as well as loan security.
The only solution is the Milei solution - get out the chainsaw and cut the government in half, no more useless waste and fraud, no more foreign spending, no more vote buying schemes and projects. Politicians salaries are out of control as are their pensions, tie their salaries to their ability to balance a budget. Enough is enough.
Let me guess, you predicted this crash 15 years ago!
@rudiger86What’s interesting is see how people with loans a property have a vested interest in prices going up. Steve spoke of the same pushback in this video. I remember at Christmas 3 years ago talking to my brother and he swore black and blue that the Aussie market wouldn’t crash because “our market is different”. That mentality and confirmation bias just continued to make borrowers ignorant. It was never if the bubble popped it was when. That’s the thing about bubbles, you only see it’s a bubble when they pop.
@tronicitIve lost $40k on my $380k (cash) Canberra condo in a year. Bring on higher intetest rates. 🇦🇺
@UJ-LiteAnd immigration of course. If our population just dropped 5 million I dare say we'd see some house price drop
@brett03747Time to leave this once great country.
@Dan7751Hmm? This is the SAME GUY that had to walk to Tumut for a losing bet after last time he predicted Aussie real estate would crash!!
@stevemundie8495Good, prices need to be wrecked for the good of the economy. Australians should be investing in businesses , not property
@Jimmyswole-YT