Visually Explained

Visually Explained

82,600 subscribers

⏱ 👁 26,575 views

Make Money Betting on Politics - Arbitrage with Predictit

Video Overview & Insights

Step-by-step tutorial to find and profit from arbitrage opportunities on Predictit. Predictit is market with unique attributes that makes it the perfect place for arbitrage: it is closed to big players like banks and hedge funds, and it lets you bet on political outcomes.

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8:47 with fees and limits, is arbitrage still consistently profitable or does it mostly get priced out quickly?

— @TrendOdds-m1q

- PredictIt arbitrage calculator: http://visuallyexplained.xyz/predictit-arbitrage-calculator/

- PredictIt: https://www.predictit.org/

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Very cool could you do a video showing Kalshi app, i think this technique is cool

— @latashawiller8559

0:00 Intro

2:00 Basics

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What is the algorithm for calculating the non-$1 share purchase amount?

— @zeev8436

4:06 Buy YES and NO

5:55 Buy Every Yes

“

Holy

— @TheSmileyTrader

8:00 Fees

11:10 Buy Every No

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The website isn't working

— @saltybandicoot3710

16:00 Why am I not a billionaire

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how do i do the math for this? like whats the equation on your website

— @haydenshinn2867

This video would not have been possible without the help of Gökçe Dayanıklı.

“

I've played around with trying to find the formula for a while.

It seems that that specific scenario is hard to find, where they all win in profit.

The most simple way to check this is to add up all the no, values and see if they are less than the total added minus 1.

e.g. at 11:56

0.99 + 0.91 + 0.77 + 0.27 = 2.94 - which is less than the 4 candidates, minus one.. so there is room for proffit.

When looking around, I would add up the candidates... say 4 of them and their totals would be 3.2 etc. meaning I'd not make a proffit.

So this is not a win all strategy, the percentages all have to be in your favour for this to work.

— @ivangutowski

More User Perspectives

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idk if you're still active on this topic, but it would be great if you could create this kind of arbitrage calculator for Polymarket as it is not as restricted as Predictit! :D

@alx_h8

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I’m on the website but when I click “get most profitable events” nothing shows up

@DrewWhatitDo

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Is there a video on automating it with code?

@DrewWhatitDo

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Betting on the election before gta6 is wild

@hudsonbrotherstruckaccesso9122

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The Predictit Arbitrage Helper website does not work.

@AviIsrael76

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The site isnt working could you please fix it

@js2sgamer951

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Do not invest, Aristotle Inc is broke and cant afford to pay his users.... they wont pay you on winning contracts.

@havabighed

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Link's broken my guy =) great vid.

@john_michaelz1823

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I don't think you site works anymore

@flyingchimp12

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Really cool video! Even if PredictIt has waged a war against your site, I still appreciate the amazing insights contained here!

@Rationalific

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Great explanation. Still waiting on that automation video 👀

@liamshaer

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very well produced video. I am interested in trying this

@cadeskaleidoscope

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theres a chance that when you buy Yes of every candidate, none of them win...

@NIKMANDU

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Hy, good night.

I would like to know if I can translate your videos to portuguese and repost them in my channel.
I would give you the credits and respect your demands. Idon't know how to create all this fancy animations and loved your content.

Anyway, thanks a lot.

@lucasaraujo6.

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Sounds like a job with no healthcare lol

@jeffreeOH

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Your website doesnt work. How do I calculate how much times I have to buy a contract inorder to make a profit? Is there a formula I can use?

@alphazero5614

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Great video, but your math completely falls apart after 12:52. Like I've been perplexed about this couple of seconds for a while now, I don't know how you fucked it up so bad, maybe you were trying to make it look good for the video or something.

Sure, this first part you got correct, if you round off the fees, 3 - 0.10 = 2.90, it cost you 2.94 to buy, so you lose 0.04.

However, when you said "buy two of the first contract" you are now saying 3 - 0.18 is 2.97... not even close, it's 2.82. So that doesn't lose 0.24, it loses 0.39. And then after that, all hell breaks loose. None of these calculations are correct.
Now when you find the profitable configuration, you say 3 - 0.11 = 3.03, which is incorrect, and somehow you get a 1.02 PROFIT from 3.03 - 3.02.
3.03 - 3.02 = 0.01, not 1.02.

Not even close bud.
And that's an incorrect profit calculation based on another incorrect calculation, actually the profit calculation would actually be 3.02 - 2.89 = -0.13, so that configuration you found isn't even profitable.

@bubbleboy821

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Your website doesnt work. How do I calculate how much times I have to buy a contract inorder to make a profit? Is there a formula I can use?

@alphazero5614

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Also the average predict it user has no actual insight into politics which creates super profitable situations

@Crackingcracker779

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Your website doesnt work. How do I calculate how much times I have to buy a contract inorder to make a profit? Is there a formula I can use?

@alphazero5614

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is this a paid ad?

@jolfreviews4476

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Your website doesnt work. How do I calculate how much times I have to buy a contract inorder to make a profit? Is there a formula I can use?

@alphazero5614

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Hey. Trying to use the predictit order book / match mechanism for something else (local fantast league side game) -- do you know what the name or style of this math / arbitration of outcome / etc is called?? That would be awesome if you dived into backend.

@nic_4849

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The site seems to not be working properly!

@alainmenendez2197

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The site doesn't seem to be working properly at the moment.

@ryancochran7679

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Could you share the formula for calculating the #of shares since its not on the website?

@johhnyfreedom

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By the 16:00 mark I’m grinning ear to ear.

@brandonjones4666

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Just great love by my heart for this video

@SanketGuptaMusic

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Is there a chance that I can bet when I am not a US citizen?

@vojta4045

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Really interesting.. good things

@josephgerrety4321

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Holly shit money making machine 🤑😀 nicely explained !

@D3xiii

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Hi There! Cool concept and video! Just letting you know I tried out your arbitrage calculator now and saw that it wasn't working for me. Kept giving me a CORS error when I try to fetch the most profitable market or a market by entering the ID.

@jeandrevanzyl6030

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Excellent video. I have subscribed and look forward to more.

@unhinged-menagerie

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Wow, this is really great. Subscribed. I can tell you put a lot of work into this, and I appreciate that you show the entire story of how you found this. I made a little Excel sheet to show how many "sets" of each contract you can buy (given the $850 limit) so I know the max number of times I could repeat this process per market before hitting a limit.

What is the biggest minimum profit you have seen so far? Do you personally do this, or was this more of a learning experience for you?

@ShadowTheNinjaKitty

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underrated YouTube channel , I love your videos :)

@reelclips3614

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could in purchase the software you use to find arbitrages as seen in the link you provided below?

@drek273