Deep Dive 07/07/2026 – Less hot and humid than June – Met Office weekly weather forecast UK

I know we have a few warmer days coming up here in the central belt of Scotland. But it's been a very disappointing start to July with only 5.1 hours of sunshine in the first full week of the month. As I type this on the 8th, we're sitting at the max temp of the month thus far (19.2°C). The cloud cover is still total, but at least the base is rising.
One thing I'd like to see tackled in the in-depth analysis is the remarkable jump in average min temps due to GW, compared to average maximum temperatures in recent years. The night-time warmth is even more scary than the headline grabbing daytime temperatures. I'm guessing due to our proximity to warming oceans.

I could barely breathe this morning it was like there was no air 😭😭😭😭

Thanks Aidan. Would it be possible to put the humidity into context for us? I note you compared dewpoints between this spell and the previous spell. But how do those levels compare with what we'd expect? Is there an ECM 'extremes plot' for humidity as you've sometimes shown for Thickness?

Related. Are there any plans at the met office to create or adopt a heat index? I'm a runner, and having a similar metric would help me know whether a session that evening would be merely uncomfortable, or potentially dangerous!

Thanks again!

Up here in the far north of Scotland - still waiting for the yellow orb!

Thankyou for a great deep dive. Excellent as always.

I drove from west Yorkshire to east Yorkshire yesterday, very noticeably more humid and way hotter in the humber area.

In other words. You have no idea what the weather's going to be!!
Showing 50 different possibilities of outcome is stating just that!
I can't wait to move! And this has made up my mind where I want to move! Scotland! But I'll still get air conditioning fitted. Problem is, if i were to stay south and get air con, I still means it's hot outside and I hate it anything above 24!

13:23 thank you Aiden for that explanation and acknowledgement of the forecasted higher temperatures in June 2026, to what they actually were. We need more reflection on forecasts!

scare mongering again lol its a normal summer like the ol days grow up.

We had hot for 10 weeks in 1976 .we went to work and school get a grip 😂😂😂😂

Omg you winge if it's raining never satisfied in this country 😂😂😂😂😂

“Not as humid”. Meanwhile it’s currently 1am and humidity is 73%.

I'm loving this heat here in Ireland being it on mid to high 20s will do me

At the start look at start there’s a snake heading fo you

Well done and well presented as always, Aiden. I’ve never missed a Deep Dive and thoroughly enjoy each and every one. Thank you !

Very many thanks for a great Deep Dive Aidan. It’ll certainly be an extended one for sure! However, thankfully we won’t be having those horrible humid nights! A very interesting DD, but at least we’ll all be very thankful when it’s over! Thanks again and many thanks to all at the Met Office! 🥵🥵

Very great explanation Adian. Glad it’s not as hot as previous heatwave this heatwave is giving me more late May heatwave vibes. We did have some rain on the Monday of the heatwave 2 and then drizzle Wednesday last week in Warwickshire so I do wonder after this heatwave if we get another wet spell like for the first half of June.

The to re-watch the classic "The Day the Earth Caught Fire (1961)".

Thank you Aidan and the MET Office team.

Came to the MET office content in winter hoping for snow, stuck with it ever since. Videos are great educational content and I get to own the daily weather chat at work 😂

Love the nerdy weather forecast with all the graphs and data. Very educational. The only improvement would be for Aiden to wear his jazzy jacket again!

Thank you Aidan , don’t mind a little rain my barrels are almost empty but let’s hope school summer holiday are a bit cooler for the children ❤

Well, Cambridge seems to be dryer and hot. The few bits of rain, just disappeared...it blows past. I would say, we have a breeze and early mornings can be cooler.

What's all this hot weather doing to the pollution index? Or isn't that a cool topic anymore.

how this now comparing to 1976

will the marine life be affected, will creatures enjoying warmer waters come into our water? will our marine life suffer? whats being done about it?

The lack of rainfall is really taking its toll here in Norfolk, it has been generally dry all year here and the grass is turning to dust on the green outside my house! I'd love to see some deeper analysis of rainfall, in particular those cumulative rainfall time series plots with anomalies in red/blue to see just how significant the lack of rain has been here in the east this year.

So, in a nutshell, it's hot.

Thanks Aidan, as always. This could be my ageing brain, but I am struggling a little to conceive of high pressure at surface level but low pressure higher up, in comparison to high pressure on the ground and high pressure at jetstream level. A brief dive (or diagram!) into this to help me understand more would be gratefully received. Thanks - Paul

Really interesting but I need to mention Scotland and Northern Ireland should be part of your forecast. You do focus on Southern conditions

Hi Aidan, the observed bias vis-a-vis temp is fascinating and it must be pleasing when your forecaster instinct is proven right! In that scenario, is there a process for recalibrating the model(s) to correct for soil temperature; or, is it more nuanced and better to ‘play it by ear’? It would be really interesting to know the feedback loop with these models. Cheers 😊

30C tomorrow here. At least not been humid. Still need AC. I like cooler weather

Can you answer a question please. If the temperature is say 27c and I'm outside in a sun trap in direct heat with no wind. ( Say the garden patio for example) How much hotter would that be for me personally? I'm trying to explain to my family that 27c isn't the top temperature they could experience. If some circumstances it could be hotter.

Thanks, Aidan. It would be interesting to see maps of wet bulb temperature.

Please tell me how there is a difference between 35 degrees and 34 degrees besides the obvious 1 degree sweetheart. What a joke. The humidity is not that different down south either. Our wildlife is dying down here.

Thanks Aidan.
We got to 13C today in Shetland.😊😊

These are the end times, the signs are everywhere - please get rapture ready! You can check out Rapture Ready News in several languages.

Can you help
I watched one of the met office videos recently, as in the last couple of months or so, that discussed different types of clouds, searched the videos on YouTube bit can only find old videos about clouds

Well when (Has a human race) You go through some of the biggest transistions since the 2nd world war i suppose it was some what inevitable that the planet would heat up. Lets all just chill out and go back to feeding the birds and look after the wildlife. Tell you what it sooo clears anxiety! put the phone or the controller down for afew hours a day your tech will have a temper tantrum though.

I'm pleased to hear it Russell, that it's predicted to be less intense

So if June had been dryer the heat wave would have been even worse. 😱

Fantastic explanation, but I just can’t stand the heat , hate every minute of it , give me the cold damp weather any day , I’ll be a lot happier when the ber months arrive.

It's ok abroad u have the sea the pools, this is England