Why 98% of People Aren't Winning Bettors

Thank you for your insights. I would say in any sport that one analyzes for betting it is extremely hard to put a number on each factor one uses of the myriad of factors that are present between opponents be it a team or an individual. So studying minutiae can be misleading if not confusing.

Biggest lesson for me: separate the pick from the price. I want implied probability, my true number, and CLV in one place before I bet. Juice (iPhone app) has been useful as a quick second screen for that, especially when checking whether a line is actually +EV or just feels sharp.

The man sits down and gives us the entire playbook in these videos. I cannot emphasize enough how valuable this information is and how sound the foundation is.

Off topic questions i know there are millions of sports app , some people say it's good to have multiple apps for betting , but I don't know if you have any videos but I would like to see a video on a top five or top ten sports app Ranking system just to see which one is the best or pays more etc ? I know people would say fanduel, or draftkings others will say prize picks , underdog or circa

Just save your money guys

Don't chase yesterdays losses stick to the process.

YOU NEED TO ALWAYS DO YOUR RESEARCH RIGHT DOWN TO THE LAST PART. BUT BETTER YOU GET LESS YOU GET ON. AND BEEN GETTING MUCH WORSE.
100% WEATHER IS A HUGE THING. GD VIDEO INTRESTING TY.

I didn't realize WNBA props were so +EV.

Not forcing action, do not bet emotionally, and trust yourself. These are things I BLEED. Live and die by it

whole lotta yapping to basically say nothing.

East coast roofing getting a shout out when I was looking for edges in the notebook

I just fade the worst Polymarket traders lmao ez Ws

The way you gotta play it is when you're hot, keep smashing it! When you start to cool down and you realized you lost 4 of your last 5 bets, take a break for a few days. The key is picking and choosing your battles, and never rely on bad teams.

I am a software developer who wanted to learn machine learning and liked sports, so this was my natural path. I started with MLB. I learned early on that "just picking the winners" was 1 - very hard, and 2 - didn't make much. With 4 bets, 2 won and 2 lost, and the 2 that won were -200, you lost money even at 50%. Then I tried NBA, I had a model that was right 60% of the time, but once again didn't make money because the games it was correct on were -200 or worse. So I started my journey to learn betting, not only how to pick the winners. I think that helped a ton, though living in Illinois has hurt a bit because DK and Fanduel charge a 50-cent tax on all bets, so trying to learn with small flat bets basically cuts those 2 books out of the rotation. Thanks to these videos and some of the Wager Talk videos, though, I learned to line shop, that beating highly efficient markets like the NBA, NFL, and MLB is very hard, and to turn my Machine learning focus to less efficient markets. Which has helped, though I am still only breaking even, or down a little bit, but most of that is my fault for using untested models; I should be breaking even! I want to learn more about my true edge, but since I am using models, getting calibration right is a challenge. I am currently using the models that are working and trying to create another model that can pick as well as them, but before the lines move as much because of Sharp money. I know content creators who make money from professional betting are going to give away their secret sauce, so I keep watching and trying to get new ideas. One day, I will make it profitable! According to my most successful model to date, I should have won 300+ on 20-dollar flat bets, so I need to work on trusting the process and scaling, too. Back to writing more code!

Yes! I finally have something to watch! lol.