WHO WINS the 2026 Kentucky Derby? đ Top 10 Contenders Ranked + Insane Stretch Runs!
Video Overview & Insights
We know the points leaders⊠but that doesnât guarantee a Kentucky Derby winner.
Is your DERBY horse in our top 10 this time?!?!
In this video, Trust The Prophets counts down the Top 10 contenders for the 2026 Kentucky Derby â focusing on the one thing that matters most: who can actually WIN on the biggest stage.
Watch the incredible stretch runs from each contender as we break down:
Ha ha ha! đ€Ș
Which horses have the winning kick
Whoâs peaking at the perfect time
The puma and Javier Castellanos winner Kentucky Derby 2026 and Venezuelan
And which contender has what it takes to wear the roses
This isnât just a list â itâs a true contender breakdown based on performance where it matters most.
Irad had his choice follow him to the winners circle
đ The Derby isnât won on paper⊠itâs won in the stretch.
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My pick to win the Derby is long-shot INCREDIBOLT - trained by last yearâs winning trainer Bill Mott who also trains Chief Wallabee. Watch his Street Sense and Virginia Derby wins. If he improves only slightly and stays out of traffic trouble, with his closing kick he will be a formidable competitor for those considered to be the top choices to win.
More User Perspectives
The horse 1st to the finish line will win it
@StacyFrancis-y4fSo Happy, i will be happy .
@virgilio3719This derby is so wide open this year
@kylesanders5999Iâm taking emerging market,
I think will be unstoppable!
Hopefully Mott kicks Junior Alvarado off Chief Wallabee and puts Kent Desormeaux. Couple bad rides will just help the odds on the ChiefâŠ
@mmunchie56These horses are not as good as they were last year.
@kingj7606One thing i will say is who ever you think wins the k.deby it will take a full effort. Lol lol lol. Also silent tactic best horse to bet w.p.s. remember what i daid 1st its been 15years.
@CarlCarlson-k5pI just google searched "Kentucky Derby Odds". This is what it said (my question is, why is Ezum listed on here, especially at 2-1!!!!):
AI Overview
As of April 2026, Renegade (4-1), Commandment (7-1), and Further Ado (8-1) are top contenders for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, with trainer Brad Cox holding multiple top choices. Ezum has also emerged as a potential 2-1 favorite following a strong performance. Odds are fluctuating based on final prep races and jockey commitments.
Key 2026 Kentucky Derby Contender Odds (Futures/Current):
Renegade: 4-1
Commandment: 6-1 / 7-1
Ezum: 2-1 (Morning-line)
Further Ado: 8-1
The Puma: 12-1
Chief Wallabee: 10-1 / 13-1
Potente: 15-1
Key Betting & Field Notes
Trainer Dominance: Brad Cox trains top contenders Commandment, Further Ado, and Ezum.
Jockey Decisions: Irad Ortiz Jr.'s choice of mount is heavily influencing odds, specifically regarding Renegade.
Top 10 Rankings: In addition to the top three, experts are highlighting The Puma, Emerging Market, and Incredibolt as top contenders.
Last Minute Value: Experts suggest looking at horses like The Puma or Chief Wallabee (10-1 to 13-1 range) for value before final odds are locked.
Latest Prep Winners: Recent winners like Burnham Square (Blue Grass), Journalism (Santa Anita Derby), and Rodriguez (Wood Memorial) are shaking up the leaderboard.
EDIT: EDIT: You can see Ezum last race by searching this on YouTube: R4 Colonial Downs 14 Mar 2026
He won by (according to announcer) about 20 lengths!!!!! Race was only 1 mile.
No. Incredibolt
@marcuswalker929Hi guys::Nice video!! Congrats!!
@ELIOSANFELIUChief Wallabee and silent tactic
@JosephNeal-i3gItâll be a close one between renegade and further ado
@ashleyyates970Chief Wallabee over Commandment and The Puma???
@robbchristensonFurther Ado can win the Triple Crown. No question. His 106 Beyer and 127 HRN in the Blue Grass support that. Plus, his pedigree is phenomenal with Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Mr. Prospector. It's his race to lose. I would like to see Counting Stars in The Preakness depending on her Oaks performance.
@jonathanzipp4398Further Ado, Renegade, Commandment, The Puma.
@davidmcaron7059The Puma đ Will
@VictorValenciaLedesmaHow is it Chief Wallabee and Puma are ahead of Commandment when Commandment beat both of these horses???? And Commandment had harder horses to go against in Chief Wallabee and Puma in the Florida Derby.........?
@valkline6060The Puma seems to be a popular early pick. I like all 3 from the FLD, but expecting the betting public to hit him hard.
@groundhog5923Smh the puma beat further ado . the puma should be ranked higher
@dnice8451Emerging market my pick
@dnice8451This will be a horse race between Further Ado and So Happy...
@MiNemIsMickeyWhy is Further Ado ahead of Fulleffort?
@MayorOfTurfwayPor qué nadie dió a cheff wallaby? Tiene mucho chance.
@joseluis-9469Renegade will win guaranteed
@terencekyei6034Derby in suprise horse; Ä°ncredibolt. đ âïž
@misfortune_18Nothing from Wood Memorial or Virginia Derby
@ColinMcCarterWonder Dean
@ColinMcCarteremerging market
@audition8170Renegade has some gasoline in them
@MichaelMcCausland-pg6qsSilent tactic has some kick
@MichaelMcCausland-pg6qsProfits, I want to know whoâs on the bubble
@MichaelMcCausland-pg6qsKD super= Further Ado, The Puma, So Happy, Silent Tactic
@Tv-96-k1tSince Paladin is out, I like The Puma.
@marymiller4352Damon bourbon #5. That a real joke.đ
@SoniaUreña-p8oI will say, he is not my pick, but Commandment just might pose a problem. Heâs cut the inside rail before, and both Rich Strike and Mystic Dan won with the same move. He is classier than both of them, and if he does it againâŠwatch out.
@brinleyisawesome6398I'll wait for the Post Position..
@ronniebravo6244Ignore Incredibolt at your own risk
@roblegg3983Further Ado đ
@tommyvelozChurchill Downs Experience
Itâs a factor but not a major factor if Animal Kingdom, Iâll Have Another, Orb, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Always Dreaming, Justify, Maximum Security/Country House, Authentic, Medina Spirit, and Mage never ran at CD before and still won the Derby.
Experience at CD prior has produced 3 of the last 4 Derby winners (Rich Strike, Mystik Dan, and Sovereignty) but itâs not an angle that should be taken as gospel if a dozen horses since 2011 never raced at CD prior to their Derby wins. Itâs cool that Further Ado, Commandment, and Incredibolt have previous experience at CD but itâs not the end-all, be-all.
Last Derby winners with previous experience at CD since 1996âŠ.
2025: Sovereignty
2024: Mystik Dan
2022: Rich Strike
2010: Super Saver
2007: Street Sense
2001: Monarchos
1998: Real Quiet
1996: Grindstone
Thatâs 5 winners (25%) in the last 20 years or 8 winners (26.7%) in the last 30 years. Iâm not counting Mandaloun because heâs an absolute bogus winner of the 2021 KY Derby. He did break his maiden at Churchill but heâs not the â21 Derby winner to me. And again, I had money on him! People in KY simply got mad at Baffert for Justify that they tried to cancel culture Bob after Medina died.
Looking at final fractions or if they have experience at Churchill are just stupid stats to follow. Mage did not have a fast closing time in the Florida Derby. Angel of Empire ran a fast final 3/8th and 1/8th in the Arkansas Derby similar to Renegade. Oaklawn homestretch has a downhill slope. Mage still beat Angel of Empire . He beat Two Philâs who earned a 101 Beyer in the Jeff Ruby while Mage had a 94 in the Florida Derby.
All these statistics gets thrown out the window once the gates open and they become irrelevant. We cannot predict pace or horses having bad trips. Horses are not bottled up in stats or numbers. Anything can still happen. We are simply looking for trends and patterns that donât always repeat. You bet black on roulette. The next spin, itâs the same odds getting black as the previous spins before it.
âEveryone has a plan until they get punched in the face.â - Mike Tyson
THE ROAR OF THE PUMA IS LOUD AND CLEAR WITH THE GREAT DUO CASTELLANO/DELGADO....
@georgepimentel3072Mike Smith on Bourbon? Really?
@LABoykoFlavien rode Market in the LAD, not Irad.
@LABoykoFlavien rode Commandment in the FLD, not Joel.
@LABoyko