What Prediction Markets Don't Want You to Know

Sounds like money laundering to me.

It’s gambling. No matter how you state it. Gambling is trying to win money by predicting what an outcome will be. Same as this. Just another scam to separate morons from their money.

I like this

Casino but for idiocracy

Gambling.

Man, I hope after 2028 all this corruption finally gets done for.

AI, Prediction Apps, Crypto, etc.

I hope all these crash and burn and all those who allowed these go to jail and no bail.

dumb people will always be swindled

Ugh. Stop calling them "bets." They are contracts that you can sell to other people.

Can you sell "bets" to someone else? No!!! You can't!!!

You don't buy contracts in the hopes you'll be "right." You buy contracts that you believe will increase in value over time.

This can include contacts that are $.02 each because you believe that the value will increase to $.05 so you can sell for a small profit.

Or manipulators will convince more losers with false data to make money before selling

Not really a zero sum game. Losing money in a prediction market doesn't mean you are not compensated elsewhere. Prediction markets are a useful tool for mitigating risk.

7:18 yes it does

I’d think two cents would cover this, but platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket aren't just gambling sites—they’re basically macro insurance. People have a genuine incentive to buy low-probability contracts to hedge against downside risks in their main portfolios, treating them like a shield against market shocks. On top of that, Kalshi acts like a high-yield savings account because they actually pay interest on your portfolio's net value—including open positions. That means you don't lose out on regular yields or suffer an opportunity cost while waiting months for a long-term contract to settle.

They're not just sites for men ages 18-24 to lose all their money on they are also useful financial tools.

Prediction market's ads target losers, what a shocker

I'm surprised that PBS is platforming these losers.. 👎

Wait until you try to cash out.. then it's "suspicious activity" lol

Love it when suckers get suckered but don't even know it and think they are the clever ones.

Good stuff

As legit as elections?!

It is gambling with the added evil of insider trading

Glad to know 96% are atheists

This is sad teaching children to become gamblers

Next time don't use Jesus for your example

God I love gambling

Continuing with the poker analogy - being an inside trader in prediction markets is like playing a Texas hold em' game where your 2 cards stay hidden but everyone else plays with one of their 2 pocket cards showing.

Lol bs there is as little risk in a polymarket bet as there is in government bond, where the f did you school? To be clear, Polymarket can go bankrupt, the US government cannot.

Cut your damn hair, bro

Is anyone here are going to talk about what is going on with these two? I have bben watching this couple for a Long time, and they have been great. But recently, man, something's up. Do they even believe in the stuff they are talking about? BTW, this Pollymarket video is spot on.

And you didn't even bring the problem of how oracles have discretion to choose whichever side they want and not be punished for many contracts. E.g. contracts for "Tesla releases a self-driving car" got marked as YES even when by the definition of the contract they didn't. But the way the system works nobody (even the losers) have an incentive to challenge so it stands

No different than sports gambling. Needs to be (really and seriously) regulated.

I buy a 5 dollar scratch off ticket 2x a year. Because thats the guy that wins. Not the guy that buys 20 dollar ones constantly

What a misguided video. The whole point of any kind of market is to determine the price of things.

Insider trading is good, because it allows the information that was previously secret to be shared! Knowledge is good, not dangerous!

If people who don't know anything bet all the time, they will lose or win according to the probability of the event. This means, who wins and who loses is not going to be the same people.

Market efficiency has been studied for decades, shame the creators of this video choose to be so uninformed, and to spread misinformation.

7:30 Your argument that betting on prices going up would invalidate the information given to the public is utterly nonsensical. Taking the Jesus market aside, if I believe an event is more likely than its current price, I have an information edge on the market. I expect the price to adjust to the likelihood of that event as maturity approaches and more traders make their decisions. By buying in, I divulge my information edge to the public.

Now, what you did NOT talk about, in regards to the Jesus market, says more about you than about it. There are DERIVATIVES of this market (will the Jesus market hit x $ct by y date?), hence there is a double-sided incentive to raise the price of the underlying.

And why is your focus on prediction markets when it comes to zero-sum games? 97% of retail traders lose money on traditional markets.

Zero mentions of Brier scores or other forecasting metrics, no discussion about the data, just 'expert opinion' - which is worthless.
Honestly, your channel is maximally sloppy and superficial. This video made me unsubscribe. Thanks.