The US-Iran "Gut Check" and the Future of European Defense
Video Overview & Insights
This week’s NATO summit in Turkey left big questions about the war in Iran and America’s role in European defense.
19:32 You should know NATO is an alliance based collective defense. Silly thing to say...
On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the US-Iran ceasefire breakdown, NATO and the European collective defense dilemma, and Turkey’s geopolitical rise and impact on the shifting realities in the region.
Episode recorded on July 9, 2026.
Friedman makes good points but misses a few. Europe doesn't start endless non-stop wars like the US does. They don't need a huge military. America starts shit all over the world so we not only need a huge military but we also need European bases from which to wage our wars in the Mid East. I'm glad to see Europe spending more on their defense but this argument only goes so far. Russia invaded Ukraine partly because AMERICA was planning military bases there. European NATO was not. Russia was NOT going to invade Europe.
So we might be providing Europe with a big defense lift but they only need it because of American military adventurism raises the threat against Europe in the first place.
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The US had set up the world system as a hegemony. It has decided over the past 5-10 years it doesnt want to be a hegemony but rather an extractive and coercive multipolar power.
0:00 Introduction: Iran Ceasefire, US Foreign Policy & NATO Outlook
1:56 US-Iran Tensions: Is the Ceasefire Built to Last?
An antique video.
3:57 Iran Escalation Risks, Red Lines & Nuclear Negotiations
7:49 NATO Summit: Defense Spending vs. Political Reality
American here. And I don’t think America should be In NATO
13:27 Europe's Defense Crisis, Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
21:10 Is NATO Changing? Article 5 & US Troop Reductions
There is nothing stopping the USA from leaving NATO, but it does not.
Instead it remains in NATO and continues to tell Europe what to do... and Europe obeys while wagging its tail.
23:59 The "Alliance of the Willing", Europe's New Security Strategy
25:30 Turkey's Rise: NATO's Emerging Power Broker
Why would I bleed or die for a continent of ppl who hate us?
Europe is capable of defending itself. It's time they found their spines. Russia can't attack Europe in any way that would matter. Putin is getting his teeth kicked in by Ukraine. Europeans fear of Russia is outdated & pathetic.
27:19 Saudi Arabia, Israel & Middle East Balance of Power
29:04 Why Cold War Middle East Strategy No Longer Works
George, go back to school. Learn what "defence" alliance means. Learn international diplomacy primary course, then have your own talk show. This is just embarrassing.
30:56 Erdogan's Legacy, Turkey's Regional Influence
33:01 Europe's Strategic Future: Security & Global Leadership
It is unlikely that US will do full scale invasion of Iran.
More likely that US will try to use Iranian groups to create a regime change.
More interesting is how the new technology is changing the power balance in the world.
More User Perspectives
The Future of Europe is nuclear wasteland. We have willingly been occupied and corrupted totally, our elites, our media all of it. Now the US will use us like Ukrain and like sheep we will bleatingly march to nuclear oblivion. This could be a 10 second vid.
@sandermalschaert2336Americans are for NATO all the way loyal. TERRORISTS AND DICTATORSHIP AND SHARIA LAW. I DON'T THINK SO.
@FawnPhilipMATURE. YOU'RE IN SHARIA LAW. YOU WILL NOT MATURE UNLESS YOU GO FURTHER INTO TERRORISTS MAYBE.
@FawnPhilipGet on with acquisition of Greenland and unification of the U. S. and Canada. That is in the interest of the U. S. Let the Europeans take care of themselves. Just keep foreign powers out of the Western Hemisphere.
@CLIFFORDSTANLEY-f2cWhat makes the U. S. so great is one word, "united." What makes Europeans such losers is, "It is not in our interest."
@CLIFFORDSTANLEY-f2cThis is ridiculous. Russia is a nuclear power. Without U. S. there would be nothing stopping the Russians. NOTHING. It is not in the "interest" of European countries.
@CLIFFORDSTANLEY-f2cEurope lacks unity and a leader. The US has been / can be that. For us to just suddenly exit that role is massively destabilizing. It undermines American security beyond words. Especially when coupled with our fighting a trade war with the EU and threatening Greenland.
This guest seems asleep to these obvious facts.
We have no economy because Americans get nothing. We spend it all on foreign nonsense!
@joanofarc6402So Americans should spend the next 50 yrs watching & spying on Iran because they might have a missile? How do you enforce this? This is an endless money pit of chasing an objective you can’t ever prove.
So all American resources are spent watching, harassing, Iran to prove we have no idea what weapons they have. This is foolish.
Your objectives can’t ever be met. You’d have to microscopically sweep all Iran land buildings FOREVER! Every month!
NATO has better objectives than this. Who enforces this unattainable goal with Iran. At whose expense? Whose soldiers risk lives for this insanity!
This plan will take all 🇺🇸 usa resources for the next 100 yrs.
And why? What do a merger? Israel governs themselves! They hate USA citizens!
Notice Iran never hit USA with a missile??? Because they can’t. So why are we spending trillions on this useless war!
Americans are furious! There is no patience left. Enough.
Things better change. Washington DC and all these foreign countries better do something great for every American citizen!
This population is so angry. They are furious! We are dying out here. While Washington DC writes every foreign country a billion $ check.
Americans are so mad at Trump. He didn’t deliver anything to American citizens yet he gave away trillions to his foreign countries/friends.
Trump is out. I’ve never seen Americans so angry as they are now. If Washington DC doesn’t do something for its citizens! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸this country hates its citizens. They lie about everything
At least EUROPE BUYS / IMPORTS American products!
Americans can travel all over Europe and not get assaulted by the idf.
Europe is more flexible!
Israel HATES AMERICANS! I used to support Israel but I’ve had enough! They don’t give a hoot about American citizens nor do they ever thing of our future
Is anyone discussing American citizens future and who will save us?
I can’t find 1 podcast on the bright future American citizens have.
Our entire country only cares about foreign countries!
I loath being American! I’m in my 60’s and I actually hate this country now. 30 yrs of Washington DC sucker punching us for every foreign policy!
We never even get 1 nice comment from all these Allie’s we have. These Allie’s hate us.
I can’t stand living in doom and lies that only benefit Israel.
Not one mention of what’s great or good future for every American!
Immigration and foreign influence destroyed us.
Israel. Needs to get a new partner! We are dying. No breath left.
This is so exhausting to America! When do American citizens EVER MATTER? We couldn’t care less about Iran. Israel sucks up all the oxygen in Washington DC !!
Omg. I’m furious! I work 2 jobs. I have my master. I pay property and income taxes that are at least 35% of my income.
Yet Israel is still more important!!!
I hate being American! I now loath being American! Our bank accounts are drained for a tiny country WHO HAS NEVER EVER THANKED NOR SPEAKS DIRECTLY TO AMERICANS! Israel talks to USA Js and Washington DC.
NAME 1 thing Israel has done to benefit every American! And it’s not idf mossad intelligence!
I hate being American! Being used for 40 yrs and WE ARE WORSE OFF ! Poorer.
This NATO ALLIANCE WITH Israel is just another law where Americans pay for ALL THEIR WEAPons plus we get all their blame.
Israelis HATE AMERICANS! They absolutely hate us. Listen to their youth podcasts on YT. All Israelis think Americans are dump fat Christians! Look up Rebecca Ben !! She’s says it over and over. She says all youth Israelis despise Americans. They like India.
It's time for them to allocate funds from the bloated Welfare State.
@misaelfraga8196Turkey can't be part of Europe. Its interests are different. Should not be on the map. And Turkey threatens Greece and Cyprus. It creates problems with Israel. Accepts Hamas on its soil. Helps Pakistan against India like China. Turkey is a problem. Not a solution.
@tm2bow653100% accurate. The US had absolutely no problem with defending Europe when they needed it because they were rebuilding after WWII and did not have the spare economic capacity to defend themselves during that period of recovery and reconstruction. The US has a problem with continuing to provide that defense and security now that the period of recovery and reconstruction has completed and the EU has a roughly equivalent economy that actually gives the more to work with in terms of purchasing power parity with an even larger population to recruit military personnel from. The US isnt turning its back on NATO and it is certainly not betraying NATO it is expecting the rest of NATO to grow up and act like an adult. It's no different than a parent kicking their 22 year old out of the house. You're capable enough to bring independent and you have been for a while now it's time to start taking care of your responsibilities.
@ThatGuyKazzNo one is fighting for the Epstein Mafia's control of the World and continued iron grip on Western Civilisation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G45WthPTo24 / https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkP90WSDNYw
Uhm yeah. But in an alliance, one member does not unilaterally go on some crazy adventure without any consultation with the allies and then complain about them not helping. Let alone while at the same time boasting that they are anyway not needed. Also how is the power projection in the middle east done? Mainly from German airbases (especially Ramstein). If Germany were to kick the US out, you can forget it with just aircraft carriers and then it is goodbye empire illusions for the USA too. All ignored by Mr Friedman
@blockvizVDH and GF suffer from the same ailment.... they may not think that Europe is doing much, while it's really swinging the other way when it comes to military spending. Yes, we seriously dropped the ball the last 2-3 decades, no argument there and it's about the only correct thing Trump ever said. But the investments now being made are stretching the already seriously strained budgets of a lot of European nations and go at the expense of other things. And it's all well and good Trump is pissed, but EU politicians have to cater to their domestic populations first and 10 years ago, it would have been political suicide to advocate for massive military spending because the domestic populations just did not see a need to it, when pressed with more imminent concerns like healthcare and pensions. It's all well and good you have a massive military budget, but Europeans see it came at the expense of affordable healthcare and population. You chose your evil as a nation and Europe simply saw other demons in the past. You can debate all night long about which vision is right but Europe does not see the US as the promised land anymore. We see a massively divided society, a tech oligarchy, massive homelessness and a president who does not care for the separation of branches within the government. And a very, very short term memory when it comes to the involvements of NATO member states in Iraq and Afghanistan... And above all, don't be ridiculous - the US gladly took over European security because it meant their massive military industry had a continuous market to supply to and US bases on the continent. Don't act like it was all charity and there was no self-interest involved. I'd expect a little more nuance and insight from a geopolitical firm. PS: I'm personally very pro to more military spending, because I actually agree it's necessary ..but as I mentioned earlier - a very black and white picture is painted here without historical context or European perspective
@kage85_Man. You do know about the geostrategic nightmare of the eastern-european plains. So what is the plan for the empire getting involved in a forever-war there please?
@modemmann303The way this guy speaks makes me want to freak out lol
@Ariaga2"Europe needs to mature"
Europe has been inhabited by modern humans for about 45,000 years. I think it would have happened by now if it was going to happen at all.
He ignores the most important part of this security agreement. The original deal is that in exchange for countries using our dollars, we provide security for them. Surely he knows this.
@Ariaga2This guys is nuts and doesn't seem to grasp NATO is a DEFENCE treaty, not a carte-blanche to help out the Yanks in their endless war games all around the world.
@chrisb835-y3jGreat video and objective discourse, gentlemen. Respect from Nigeria 👏 Here, the USA recently sold us weapons (Obama refused this back then but thankfully, Trump didn't) and sent some military personnel for joint training and countering insurgency operations. Well, many of those personnel have returned but the USA is still continuing the weapons sales and intelligence sharing with us. That's how any defense pact should be. They value us as a partner and provide support to us but they also want us to be strong on our own with said support and it has been beneficial to us here. Our country l, though plagued with many issues, had not become a near failed state like some others here and our military is strong. Europe should try that.
@orboakin8074The idea that war is anachronistic is a uniquely European ignorance.
@enoughrope1638Discuss this issue with the average brit and they understand the issue though their opinions vary. Try discussing it with the average european and they will scream autistically about "amerika bad!" The mindset is terminal.
@enoughrope1638Europe doesn't have oil deposits. They can't send Lend-Lease to the US.
@jasonalmendra3823I’ve never heard Christian Smith sound so clueless. It was almost like a parent speaking to their teenager. It was sad. Sad that Smith still doesn’t get it - that his own Great Britain and the rest of Europe needs to step up and accept their responsibility to pay for their own defense.
@anthem5797The U.S. can’t make a deal with Iran because Iran doesn’t want a deal
@dadmiraldankbar3720Conquer Bandar Abbas and build a pipeline towards Suez.
@Nettlebed7Can't comprehend how many "credentialed Europeans" or "intellectuals" I've spoken to over the years who still think that it is THEIR institutions & systems which prevented continental wars. They've practically shut out the Europeans who object to this view & who want to establish some level of security, not just from a security standpoint but also economic & energy. Thus, all of these ideas or 'complaints' are practically foreign when you talk to the average European because their elites/managers just don't have it as a point of discourse.
In truth, we see that outside the US sphere of influence in Europe, the Russian sphere has seen wars which killed 100k or more in the 90s (Yugoslav Wars), 00s (end of Chechnya), & 20s (Ukraine). I cite this because these "100k death per decade wars" were normal European sized wars for hundreds of years. That is something that should be prevented but cannot unless the current European ruling class & manager class are smacked around or replaced. Hence, they're sending more money to Russia, having fueled their war economy, than they have sent in aid to Ukraine.
Europe needs to get rid of the EU and restore competitiveness among countries. Our current model has Spain legalizing hundreds of thousands of random "asylum seekers", AC only being turned on for top-floor EU executives, and everything on our devices being scanned by the foreign power that is the EU.
@NorwayToday98"His war with Iran" ... I bet you cannot explain that comment without lying, Mr. Smith.
@RobertKLRThe US is going to negotiate with a new round of blowing up shit in Iran
@MarkGoodwin-f1wHow about we arm all NATO members with independent nuclear deterrent. Job done.
@joecater894Europe does not get that they don't matter anymore. At best, the Europeans are a second rate power. It is a mental barrier that they don't understand that rapid decline means less say so.....about anything.
@jeffrey7938Trump is the baby in the room. Europe is the adult.
@GeraisingEurope grew comfortable being vassels when it was to their benefit, but then didn't question what happens to their seat at the table when America doesn't give it to them out of courtesy anymore.
@taumctauface1886