The Secret Formula to Timing the Market (Here's How)

Video Overview & Insights

⏱️ You can time the market if you know what to watch. In this video I reveal the 7 free indicators I use to decide when to be in or out of stocks. We are in the first week of October 2025 and the S&P 500 and SPY are sitting at all time highs. Smart traders do not chase. They measure breadth, liquidity, and risk. I will show you exactly how to add each indicator in TradingView, what “healthy” looks like right now, and the exact warning signs that tell you it is time to step aside. If you want a no BS blueprint for market timing, dip buying, and risk management, this is it.

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What you will learn:

- The Net New Highs and Lows overlay that turns green when real breadth is powering the rally, not just 10 mega caps.

- The Advance and Decline Line divergence that quietly flagged the 2022 bear market, and how the same tool confirmed the latest breakout.

- The percentage of stocks above the 200 day moving average (NCTTH), the “line in the sand” pros use to separate bull from bear.

⏱️ Timestamps

0:00 Intro. You can absolutely time the market. Context October 2025, SPY at all time highs

0:36 Indicator 1. Net New Highs and Lows (TradingView: US Markets Net New Highs Lows by Matt Caruso). What a green background really means for breadth and how I set exchanges NYSE, Nasdaq, AMEX

2:31 How to use it. Three green bars, breadth thrusts, and what preceded mini crashes versus bull legs

3:52 Indicator 2. Advance and Decline Line (A/D). Spotting hidden strength or weakness via divergences. The 2021 warning and 2022 bear playbook

6:43 Indicator 3. Percent Above the 200 Day (NCTTH). The 50 percent line that separates a healthy bull from rot under the hood. Why 90 percent falling to 40 percent is a blaring siren

9:56 When to re engage. Regimes where percent above 200 day reclaims and holds above 50 percent. Backtests and examples

10:41 Indicator 4. NFCI, the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index. Interpreting tightening versus loosening and why revisions matter

12:52 Indicator 5. High Yield Effective Index (BAML H0A0HYM2EY). The credit risk dial Wall Street watches when tariffs, uncertainty, or growth scares hit

15:59 How falling yields and spreads fuel equities. Flows, valuations, and risk on mechanics

16:19 Checklist recap. If HY spreads fall, NFCI falls, percent above 200 day rises or stays firm, A/D rises, Net New Highs rise, you want long exposure

17:10 Buy the dip trigger 1. Percent Above 5 Day (NCFD). Why sub 20 percent prints signal panic and tactical entries

18:34 Buy the dip trigger 2. Put Call Ratio (PC). Spikes above 1.0 as contrarian buy signals. Smoothing with a 10 day SMA

20:51 Putting it all together. The 7 indicator timing framework you can review once a week to sidestep bears and buy near lows

22:07 Call to action and next steps. Tools, settings, and how to follow along for real time strategy

🔑Key Takeaways

- Breadth first. If the rally is real, you will see Net New Highs printing green and the A/D line rising with or ahead of price.

- Trend verification. A healthy bull keeps more than 50 percent of components above the 200 day. Sustained slips below mean caution.

- Liquidity drives cycles. NFCI trending lower means looser conditions, more credit, and higher risk appetite.

- Risk spreads matter. High Yield rates and spreads reflect real world risk. Sharp jumps often precede equity weakness.

- Dip discipline. Use NCFD below 20 percent and Put Call Ratio spikes above 1.0 to time high probability entries.

🔧Add These in TradingView (fast)

- Net New Highs and Lows: “US Markets Net New Highs Lows” by Caruso

- Advance and Decline Line: Accumulation or Distribution and A/D variants

- Percent Above 200 Day: NCTTH

- Percent Above 5 Day: NCFD

- Put Call Ratio: PC

- NFCI: “NFCI” (Chicago Fed)

- High Yield Effective Index: BAML H0A0HYM2EY

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If this helped you see the market like a pro, tap Like, subscribe, and turn on notifications so you never miss an alert, live breakdown, or trade setup. Comment “TIMING” if you want me to post a printable 7 Indicator Checklist. I will share it in the next video and pin it.

⚠️DISCLAIMER: Ross Givens does not offer financial advice. The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Ross Givens is not responsible for any financial losses or consequences resulting from the use of the information provided. Trading carries inherent risks and may not be suitable for all individuals. You are advised to conduct your own research and seek personalized advice before making any investment decisions, recognizing the potential risks and rewards involved.