The IPO Frenzy Has Begun — ft. Howard Marks

Too high-level. I'm a huge fan of Marks, but didn't share anything concrete. It's clear as the nose on our faces this is a monster mal-investment bubble, that it will pop and a lot of passive bid investors are going to get spanked.

Incredible discussion. But without any consideration of sovereign debt, inflation, QE, or real interest rates... it wasn't even really an academic exercise. At 50:00 Marks discusses everything going up since 2009. And how it was great for investing. It had nothing to do investing. The bath tub was flooded and the rubber duckies went up. We will have a reckoning. Including in AI, in my humble opinion. Would have liked his opinion.

Learned nothing from this video lol

I had a 170 likes comment here that said: "A lot of words for it's a rigged gamble" - the comment got deleted - probably no one will read this comment but just to give you an idea. Welcome to the world of "investment"

Currently the S&P500 PE ratio is 32 lol

The first 25 minutes is literally the guy just saying "who knows, it could be good, it could be bad"

This was all word salad that just boils down to a shurg, then "who's to know"

It's kinda mad that we can underestimate their capabilities while overestimating their valuation, quite mad that both of these are true at the same time

This young man will have hard time in his life with his constant bearish thoughts and analysis 😅

The private credit mess will be fine as per Marks or will NOT be fine, depending on whether AI damages the prospects of the software companies that have received private credit funds. It does seem that, at a minimum, some of them will be out of business and some of them will stay in business but have their margins reduced. At present, the scope of the damage to private credit returns is an unknown because the impact of AI is still evolving and emerging.

Marks is a master. Like a great painter he communicated his vision with bold, clear concepts. I will remember his matrix and apply them to all future investments. Whether I'm successful or not will amount to a coin flip! But thank you for the schooling!

This book is controversial for a reason and everyone should read Smart Broke Dumb Rich by Zor Veyl. It tells the uncomfortable truth that the system does not want you rich. It needs you working, spending, borrowing and staying dependent for life. Schools wont teach this. Parents dont know it. Once you read it you cant go back to being comfortably broke. It forces you to take responsibility and most people hate it for exactly that.

My Fav , calls it as it is !!

Can someone explain to me if there are no jobs who will be buying these models? Will not economic activity slow down and then it will be some kind of socialistic economy. Why should I bother with investing? What will people be doing with their time ? We can’t even say writing books, because apparently AI can do that as well

US government orders Anthropic to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all foreign nationals. Thus be extremely careful if considering to buy the IPO

The dividend investor "value investor" buys the present at a discount; the growth investor buys the future with exclusivity.

Howard isn't a magician, don't expect any tricks. When he advises, he sounds like a lawyer with both sides of his mouth politely negotiating with itself. Talking to him is like visiting your school principal someone who confidently claims to know everything, yet somehow can't offer one piece of advice that doesn't end in a sigh.

16:30 specific question about what is undervalued now. HM speaks for 5 minutes and says nothing.. 😂😂

This guy is the bitter ex with the way he bangs on about Elon Musk, he's got EDS

Typical HM generalities. Can talk for 2 hours without saying anything

I don’t care about the upside right now. I’m focusing on limiting the downside as much as possible. The gains will come if they don’t collapse

Things that won’t get disrupted
Energy: oil and gas
- solar and wind
Food
- lab grown meat
Transportation: no teleporter
- Atonomus cars at $0.20 a mile

This is 100% my problem with markets right now. I am not interested in a lottery ticket. I'm not looking for a get-rich-quick gamble. I want solid investments. The gambling seems like it will surely lead to a crash at some point.

And it's a race to the zero in terms of pricing. Microsoft was never for free. Appl products were always expensive. These ai products are almost for free. If someone raises their price, someone else will step in and deliver it cheaper. Chinese will give it for free

Musk is mostly all hype and fundamentaly fully of shit.

So. Many. Ads. I pay for premium and yet get swamped with ads here. Honestly, I hate every advertisement. I am boycotting them with disdain because they are complicit with the disrespect of the audience. Doesn't matter if it's software for my business or clothing. If you advertise here and disregard those of us who pay to get quality content without ads, you've lost my business. Also, whenever I refer to PGM in conversation, I always preface that it's riddled with ads. Figure your stuff out PGM.

What bothers me is the hype for pump and dumpers is just that, they have something new to manipulate and hope to get rich quick; it has nothing to do with the pitch: going to mars, future of humanity in space, etc. And when if you do the smallest amount of research on said claims by Musk you realize he is just doing marketing. Products that might exist, sure, in 100 or 200 years generations from now. He wants civilization in space when he can't even get self driving cars to work properly yet.

AI reminds me of cavemen discovering fire. The cavemen knew it was important and would be useful but had no idea about all of its uses. Some people will get burned for sure but I want to be positioned with the strongest companies with the best chances of discovering how to use it and profit from it.

I’m calling it for myself now — it’s definitely irrational exuberance. The idea that, because we have computers that can simulate a conversation, that somehow we’re on track for robots that can fix plumbing (not my house first please) is the definition of irrational exuberance. These things are completely unrelated technologies, bar computation and statistics being involved in both. My prediction is that we’ll look back on this era with a much more clear-eyed view of what the technology actually is, and think how funny it was that humans became so enamoured by computers that could simulate conversation. I use AI for software development, which is great, but it’s great because it is the perfect use case for LLMs: structured language that is easy to test, correct and verify. This is not a unique profile, but there are very few real-life use cases where LLMs can perform as well as they do in coding tasks.

plumber and massager nowhere even close to the same thing in regards to skill required come on now

I’m baaaaaack. This stock is a dog. What is the difference between this and 2008 subprime mortgages that are all C’s packed up in tranches with a shiny A right up front? Why would the rules be relaxed to increase the risk in IPO’s when the market is basically humming along thanks to a small group of stocks? It is not different. We are hurting. Wages are stagnant. Jobs are disappearing. Investments across the board are high risk. 1929 here we come. Thank ya. Love yall