Sports Betting Strategies - 3 Methods That Actually Work

Video Overview & Insights

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Sports Betting Strategies - Only 3 Options

In this video we’re going to outline the 3 core types of sports betting strategies and which you should choose depending on your skills, experience and goals.

1.) Modelling (Bottom Up Ratings)

Modelling is where you create individual player or team ratings for a particular sport.

It’s the creation of a number, similar to the odds themselves, usually using some kind of modelling approach.

Whether this is excel, python or even just traditional handicapping with a pen and paper.

The concept is simply to create a number or a rating on a game and reference this against the market number (the line or odds) to create an edge on one (or neither) side.

If you create a more accurate model than the market you’ll earn through the edge between your number and the markets.

This can be for any sport and any method, the only key is that you create your ratings independently from any other service or information.

2.) Top-Down or Market Chasing Method

The top-down concept, also called steam chasing or market chasing methodology.

This method involves watching odds and lines as they move and betting these in other locations.

There’s a lot of nuance to this method which increases in complexity.

Here’s the core idea:

Odds screen.

Set-up automated triggers.

Learn patterns.

Learn the flow of money.

Watch for fake moves.

Liquidity issues.

Limiting issues.

3.) Movers - Getting money down

The third option is to be the liquidity option for bettors.

Generally called movers in the industry, these are the individuals who place bets and deploy capital for others.

Generally working with modellers (or bottom up individuals) the core job is to get as much money down at the best prices and lines.

This is a really tough role and as operations grow and bankrolls increase, most syndicates or larger sports betting operations struggle with this liquidity element.

Unlike in more liquidate markets such as currencies or equities, sports is very illiquid.

Meaning even if you have created a model or approach with a massive edge, you’ll always be limited with the maximum amount of capital you can deploy on a bet.

This is why sports betting can be so difficult and there’s multiple strategies that work.

Conclusion

Of those 3 core options you can choose whatever suits your personality and skillset best.

If you are looking into the mover option then having a good network, lots of sportsbooks and outs and liquidity is a must.

You also need to have good industry experience and understand how sports markets work, which sportsbooks limit and how to deploy capital most effectively.

This option is tough to actually learn as the industry is very closed with the information around these processes.

For modelling you can look at my content on this YouTube as well as other content creators and see who you vibe with.

There’s tons of good guides on how to build sports betting models on YouTube, the key is to start with a theory and work from there.

For the screen/top down approach there’s lots of good podcasts on this subject, Spanky’s Be Better Bettors is a good place to start.

With any of those methods you can make good money, like anything it depends how much value you add and how effective you are with each individual process.