Property Expert: Why House Prices Are Falling Faster Than Expected!
Video Overview & Insights
Tim Lawless is Australia's most closely watched property data analyst — and right now, the market is moving faster than anyone predicted.
Maybe the best units to buy are the very lowest priced units on the market which may need a little bit of cosmetic work to bring their appeal up to standard instead of buying one million dollar unit, 3 very low priced units for a total price of one million dollars might be the better buy and if the units are in small blocks of units in the inner city areas , the land value per unit holder may be more than a unit in a high rise building where there is 500 units sitting on a small bock of land
IF investors buy very low priced unit , they may be able to get a capital gains when sold because some owner occupier buyers are cash buyers and they only look for the cheapest available properties to buy to live in .
As head of research at Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), Lawless sits at the centre of every major shift in Australian housing. In this conversation, he and Mark Bouris go deep on what the federal budget has done to investor confidence, why the numbers are deteriorating faster than the data can capture, and what the property market realistically looks like from here. Lawless also walks through the economics of holding an investment property in 2026, city by city, with unusual candour about where the opportunities may eventually re-emerge.
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I love data informative podcasts like this. And even though Bouris in theory has a financial incentive to push biased questions, he doesn't! He actually asks open questions like whether residential property is even still a good investment. Hats off, great stuff. Subscribed!
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Executive Producer: Sam Morgan
House prices are falling because Albanese and his buddies got their property portfolios locked down. 😂
Head of Production: Jonah Mclachlan
Filmed by: Adam Cavenor
A housing bubble always bursts. Why did one inflate is the real issue....and who inflated it
00:00 - 01:00 - Introduction and general market context
01:02 - 03:20 - Post-budget market weakness and national trends (Sydney, Melbourne, etc.)
We're in our early 70s and had 4 investment properties that fortunately we decided to start getting rid of several years ago when we decided not to be rent providers any more. ("Landlords" is the verboten "L" word!) It's just so much easier to invest our money and quite honestly, we're getting nearly the same as we were netting from property ... without the headaches and the constantly increasing taxes. Only an idiot would invest in real estate in Melbourne. I'm also glad we never listened to the financial adviser who suggested we borrow money against our house to buy more property ... it's always been a comfort to sleep knowing that the banks couldn't take the roof from over our head. I'm also glad we never listened to the accountant who suggested we put our super through a SMSF!
03:20 - 05:13 - Impact of the budget on investment and capital gains
05:14 - 05:54 - Sponsor break
I can see why economists and investors are crying foul with house prices falling. Its bad news for them but finally good news for new home buyers desperate to buy a home. You would think these two would be happy about that, but oh no, theyre too busy feeling sorry about the losses they will make after the law change despite making big gains over the years while new home buyers were shut out of the market. Its the Bad News Boys crying crocodile tears
05:55 - 08:50 - Investor demand vs. owner-occupier trends
08:51 - 10:14 - The risks of negative gearing changes and buying new vs. established
Oh well, looks like Aug 14 is going to be an important day. ABS lending indicators…eg
* The number and value of new home loans.
* First-home buyer lending.
* Investor lending.
* The average size of new mortgages.
* Refinancing activity.
mark it in your calendar.
investors make up about 40% of all lending and it is now 24% and Tim seems to saying that due to taking away negative gearing, that figure will be fixed.
It just doesn’t make sense for investors to put money into property anymore and are likely to seek higher returns from higher yielding assets eg semi conductors, data centers, AI etc
Will be very interesting to see what happens to prices. Take out 16% of buyers at auctions, could be more, maybe 20%. Venders are going to have accept low ball offers if they want the money. You’d have to be crazy to buy now, without investors armed with big loans making inflated bids. prices could drop 20% ….
10:15 - 14:32 - The "Investor Mindset": Weighing up capital gains vs. yields
14:33 - 18:22 - Property vs. Shares/ETFs and the long-term supply-demand problem
Very informative
Between this and Chris Joye ..
18:23 - 22:08 - Housing price correction forecasts and stock accumulation
22:09 - 25:10 - Are rental yields finally becoming attractive again?
Prices in Perth continue to rise. Greedy Real Estate Agents and sellers..
25:11 - 30:00 - First home buyer incentives and the risk of negative equity
30:01 - 34:08 - Why existing investors are holding on (The new "Asset Class")
When a person works 40 hours or more a week and has a decent income , there is something wrong with the system when he/she cant afford to buy a house, I'm a boomer , 75 now , a house was easily affordable when I started on just a normal wage. now its just ridiculous, these changes needed to happen, I think labor was very brave to do what they did,
34:09 - 38:46 - Confidence, market timing, and V-shaped recoveries
38:47 - 42:31 - Comparing 5-year growth: Perth (90%) vs. Melbourne (1%)
Nothing is easy with Albanese.
Absolutely piece of crap sinking our economy. Changing the rules when he said he wouldn’t.
Absolute liar 🤥.
42:32 - 44:01 - Why this downturn is "unprecedented" and multifaceted
44:02 - 49:10 - Future outperformers: Melbourne's affordability vs. Sydney
Imagine if the banking cartel financed businesses to grow the economy, not property.
49:11 - 52:04 - Regional hotspots and capital city volatility
52:05 - 55:07 - RBA August meeting predictions and core inflation
The best time for these changes was 10 years ago.
The next best time is now.
55:08 - 57:28 - Political vs. Economic outcomes and concluding thoughts
Anyone that believes that the fed will allow housing to crash doesn't know anything about the business of banking
More User Perspectives
Ok guys, apparently if you have a loss making property but also have a second or third which are positively geared you can offset those losses...not against income as a payg but the investment, so neg gearing didn't die, it just works for those with portfolios, so this labour govt just helped the rich and stuck it to those trying to enter the market as rentvestors...this is one of the most ill concieved load of crap ever by a govt
@markcarpinelli1019Government bailing out risky 5% first home buyers if they default = bad.
Government subsiding investors through negative gearing and missed tax revenue = good?
Got it, Mark 🙄
Another big issue with prices going higher is that a small percent increase on a large base for a property price will be too much for many people to be able to afford to buy at all and stamp duty is becoming too costly for people to horizontly sell and buy, and up buying will become impossible.
@mikemm9827Marks got no idea what his talking about
@WhatamachineaustraliaNot quite it depends on what area you are in, a few area still went up by a bit, also Sky interviewed an auctioneer and although numbers at auctions had dropped there where still investors buying.
@bazza2825In Australia only one thing determines what a person is willing to pay for property and that is how much they can borrow. If you decrease the stamp duty or the minimum deposit all that saving will be thrown into the price a buyer is willing to pay for a property. Nothing else matters except sentiment, but the main thing holding the market is job security of 30% of the workforce being in secure in govt jobs and if those jobs start getting axed that's the only time the market will drop big time..
@mikemm9827It's a strange world we live in.
As someone who owns two properties, whether they've gone up or down in value makes absolutely no difference to me unless I plan to sell—which I don't.
The politics around house prices has become insane. People complain that homes are too expensive, yet panic at the thought of prices falling. The reality is that property values naturally rise and fall over time, but for most homeowners and buyers, those movements don't make a significant difference unless they're actively buying or selling.
For the vast majority of people, a home should be somewhere to live, not something to obsessively track like the share market.
The Australian economy is a Ponzi scheme using migration and big borrowing that can only be sustained for a while then you have to give something big back to the lender like a surety…or infrastructure
I wonder what surety the Vic Government has locked in to our benefactors who we borrow from?
No one lends unsecured money…think about that
The more home owners in the market long term, the more valuable housing will be. Home owners spend money on their houses to improve them... landlords historically do not, only the bare minimum to keep that asset marketable and serviceable. I want homeowners in my suburb, not renters. If this is an affordability correction then good, I hope the investors sell to homeowners and make my neighbourhood in the longterm more desirable.
@cameronmale83Great podcast and guest,
Just regarding the comment on does the government call you up Tim! He didn't want to go into that because do and they probably want him to express a certain narrative in line with there goal....
We were about to sell an investment property in the Forest which is developing like mad and move the money to Southern Highlands. But now we are just sitting on it, not selling. The new tax system will force us to hold it.
@aussieadvriderAww boo hoo hoo house prices falling cry me a fxxken river.
@NoName-qv8koGet rid of this lying labour government.
@PauloDias-h3uYeah going to hold onto my three now. Yes a new asset class with the 50% cgt discount. Fancy Albo making up a lie about more first home buyers.
@livefreeordie-gv6kxNew house builds have a poor build quality, they wont last the test of time
@DaneA-x3mProperties investors were used to getting government social warefare payments as negative gearing which tax payers funded in their taxes. The reality property investors cant affird to buy investment properties without their negative gearing government social welfare payments/handouts
@DaneA-x3mMark and Tim you forget Perth went no where for 16 years
@joep9526I noticed on the last pod. Mark and Chris had something to say about Bitcoin.
How I think this relates to this podcast is, they talk a lot about fiscal changes in the budget and how this is going to affect the property market , priced in AUD.
The point of Bitcoin is, it doesn’t care about what Jim Chalmers decides to do that morning. Over the long term property prices in Australia are dropping like a rock priced in Bitcoin. It is real money. That is the point and the function of it.
Property in some states went through 10% or so correction in 2022 simply due to rising interest rates. The fundamentals have now completely changed with this latest budget, expect an average overall 20-30% downturn at least without any government backflips. Labor are clearly the worst economic managers of our time.
@sanniehehehI believe most commentators have grossly overestimated property price rises in the last few years.
Let's for example take a look at apartment price growth in Double Bay, Sydney, a blue-ribbon pocket and relatively high levels of investor ownership, particularly in your bread-and-butter 2 bedroom units.
The 5 year growth for units in Double Bay sits at 8%, let that sink in for a minute.
Factor in very average yields, inflation, all your holding costs, and it represents a very poor investment.
And now with the recent policy changes why would an investor ever consider this type of asset class?
You right wing Stefanovich lovers can just lick your wounds and sell a few holiday houses. Bouris you need to watch Alan Kohler - housing needs to come down.
@danield2000Homes should be homes not investments. It’s a great thing that negative gearing will be gone for existing homes. Everyone has a right to own their own home. Ef investors.
@chrismorgan7886A lot of comments celebrating that investors are pulling out of the market. Historically the Government of the time offered incentives CGT & negative gearing to investors to supply properties for the rental demand obviously with a benefit to the investors as well. That being said, would like to know from those investor knockers what your mechanism is to provide rental properties going forward?
@normanlembke7901It's time for mum and dad real estate investors to let the government provide affordable housing. Investing in shares & holding regardless of capital gains has never been better. There is no capital gains tax on unrealised gains. My return from real estate is net net about 3% but I can easily get 8% pa with franking credits from several ASX stocks.
@darkomilic9734Don’t stress Albo and Labor will increase migration to 500,000 per year - job done. That’s why we Love Labor voters - like Albo they would root Australia and hate Australia
@StewykThe capital gain will be debasement of the currency.
@craighaydcoreWhen you own how cares
@davidwoolley8254“They” did nothing.
The good old Aussie gambler mentality created a blow off top and now it’s deflating
If you tear down two houses side by side and they were existing properties and any new build is not exempt of CGT. Is there a regulation that allows for future relief if they say are 3 stories high or six stories high making the area higher in dwellings.
@leighcouper4594Families mostly target 3 or more bedroom properties, especially once they have a child. Especially white collar workers who need somewhere to WFH. Living in a 1-2 bedroom apartment is non viable as parents, but investors won't be interested in buying their apartment due to CGT/NG changes for existing property. So, are they stuck, or do they rent a larger apartment and choose to become rentvestors for up to 6 years using the CGT exemption provision?
@johnoneill1011So boomers’ wealth is contingent on migration..
@bailey5726why wouldn't you just buy a BTC ETF with Blackrock's IBIT, or Fidelity's BTC ETF. Much better return than a bank stock.
@leighcouper4594Im happy with the price I paid for my property in 2023 north of Brisbane. Yes I had missed the growth through 2016, but I am happy with the value I get in an upcoming suburb.
@mahana4735Soooooo wages go up roughly 36% every 10 years and houses go up 100% every 10 years and when house prices drop 5% 30 years later a bank owner complains....
@lukeread180This rubbish is just plain undignified.
@Nico-vt4ilA few exporters I know have been damaged by the US tariffs and trade war.
The War in Iran has lead to world wide inflation and reduced spending.
Housing will probably go down 10%
And stay flat if AI starts taking jobs