Picking the 2026 Kentucky Derby winner Kentucky Derby Picks and Analysis

Safe trips that are fair, for all 🙏

Renegade is a fraud mark my words commandment or further ado win ts 🥹

This is a tough year because there's so many horses here who I would love to win, it's hard to pick just one that I want to go all in on with my support. There's a lot of talent!
My bet's on Commandment, but I would love to see Great White, So Happy, or Wonder Dean win. Or... almost anyone at this point. Lots of great horses!

Like many others watching this will be my first derby watch and thanks to you I feel like I can pick at least a little more informed, enjoy your graduation and congratulations!

Sketchy the horse guy? More like Sketchy the GOAT guy. Awesome summary.

My top 5:
1. Wonder Dean
2. Commandment
3. Further Ado
4. Danon Bourbon
5. So Happy

edit: took the puma off after scratch

Fulleffort is Scratched. So it looks like Ocelli is in.

Danon Bourbon all the way!!

thanks for the info! and congratulations on graduating soon!

wonderful breakdown. very digestible even for new fans of horse racing.

I've been riding the Puma Train for a few weeks now.

I also Like Incredibolt, Wonder Dean and now I've seen him Great White looks like a horse I'll follow even after the Derby.

Congrats on Graduating btw as well bossman

the puma has personally taken my heart but i’m excited to see how all the horses preform!

The Puma to win. I just think he’s the best to win in the Derby’s mud. Chief Wallabee to place.

Dean truly has the Challenger spirit, that indomitable stamina is like blessing from grandpa acute. whose even after many hardship (old age win and colic), still the stubborn horse that refuse to go down without a fight🥹.

Run Happy was kept in sprints to keep him sound. When they purchased him, the vet said he had an old sesamoid bone injury that had healed. They didn't even know if he'd be a runner. That's the only reason they kept him in sprints. He ran on no lasix, no bute and was clocked at 46.4 MPH. That's 3 MPH faster than Flightline and the horse only had 3 good legs. Run Happy was bred for distance but due to his old injury, they kept him in sprints. His injury caught up with him in his 4 yo season and they retired him. So Happy shares the same Sire and Dam Sire lines on top and bottom as Afleet Alex, Monarchos, Barbaro, Big Brown, Palace Malice, Flightline, Nyquist, I'll Have Another, Zenyatta, Blame, Keen Ice, Rich Strike and Mo Donegal. Mr. Prospector x Kris S./Roberto and this pairing has continually produced mile and quarter runners.

LOL, maybe Commandment,

A year ago it started with umamusme... now i'm here lol

One day you’re going to show us your shiny Lex Luthor head and we’ll all cheer.

I’m going So Happy I’m a sucker for sentiment and want a happy ending.

Great analysis! Thanks!

Thanks for the great video, Nathan, and early congrats on your graduation. After your break, can you please go over Forever Young's next move, as they have posted saying he may try for the Arc or the BC again, and that he is also eligible for the Royal Ascot, if I remember seeing it today.

I’m going with Further Ado over So Happy over Pavlovian over Right To Party (edited after the scratch of Fulleffort)

I am rooting for Wonder Dean all the way, sure he has some serious competition, but I have faith that he will make it to Top Five - if not first place.

Umamusume bias aside, I really like that Dean as a horse is the one who has the least to worry about when it comes to distance. He's also quite different to Crown Pride and Admire Daytona who are speed horses that just burn out at the end. His closing times at the Poinsetta and Mochinoki are also respectable and I think that most american punters really undervalue the stamina question.
If Sakai rides him the way he did with Forever Young, and Six Speed burns up the pace I genuinely think he has a shot

Whenever I hear “first time blinkers” for the Derby I just think Palace Malice.

What race are you planning to analyze next?

YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH KENTUCKY DERBY WEEK

YOU'RE CRAZY. YOU TALKED ABOUT THE BOUNCE THEORY THIS COMMANDMENT IS RIPE TO BOUNCE. HE HAS WON A BUNCH OF RACES... HE HAS TO BE OUT OF MOJO ESPECIALLY GOING A MILE AND A QUARTER AND FIGHTING 20 HORSES INSTEAD OF 6 OR 7 IN THE PREPS. THROW OUT...EVEN THE GREAT JOCKS RAN AWAY FROM HIM.

THAT'S DUMB. JAPANESE HORSES DON'T WIN...AND WILL NEVER WIN A KENTUCKY DERBY IN THIS LIFE TIME.

It would make me so happy if So Happy won.

Commandment my favorite to win followed closely by Chief Wallabee.

I think renegade will win as long as he doesn't get boxed out and survive the kick back. If the pace is suicidal I will bet on the Puma or Wonder Dean cause I know they can run down Six Speed

Wonder Dean personally isn't a favorite of mine, however, I'd be very pleased to see him win as I'd think it'd be super amazing and historical! He'll probably be able to win me over if he just simply gets a good placement, but he hasn't convinced me quite yet. As of right now, nobody on the field really stands out to me, other than my sentimental (and home state) favorite, So Happy, who I adore and will adore whether or not he does well.

Was really pulling for Silent Tactic but after this morning I feel obligated to support Great White

Great stuff here! Commandment and Renegade are my tentative 1-2, but with how wide open this race is I will probably end up making a decision based on the post parade lol I really love how Danon Bourbon looked in Japan, but the way Wonder Dean has been getting over the track in the morning has me thinking he could be a very nice player in the exotics - there’s not a horse in the field I’m more confident will thrive at the distance (and on a similar note, I definitely plan on using Golden Tempo underneath somewhere)