OSCARS FINAL PREDICTIONS | Winners All Categories | 2025/2026 Awards Season

I think that having and Delroy and Stellan - both almost legends in their 70s - in the Supporting Actor category makes a Penn loss very possible. Who doesn’t want to see one of them take an Oscar home, especially over a 2-time winner who basically gives a middle finger to awards shows?? I think that Penn not showing up to SAG, even after winning BAFTA, gave Oscar voters permission to give it to someone else to whom it would mean much more.

Bummed and confused that you essentially gave your Best Picture choice away less than 12 minutes in. Was really excited to work up to it. However, I just saw both OBAA and Sinners yesterday, and I think that your Leo prediction is SUPER interesting. I honestly did prefer his performance to MBJ’s.

Hey, Gerald! I haven't really replied with an in depth comment in a hot minute, so here are all my thoughts (briefly) crammed into one, long comment:

BAFTA:

There were some WILD picks here. I thought for sure that it would go to Timothée, but no, they gave it to Robert Aramayo, and props to him, he was great in I Swear! Wunmi wasn't too big of a surprise (I predicted Lilleaas though) Supp actor was a big shock. I'm so happy for Penn, he was exceptional in OBAA. And of course, Jessie Buckley, who was never NOT going to win. Lilleaas and Skarsgård missing the BAFTA definitely killed their Oscar chances I think, although Skarsgård MIGHT still have a very slim chance.

SAG:
I did pretty well here (4/6). I predicted Sinners winning ensemble all season, but switched to OBAA last minute, which was obviously a mistake. Again, STOKED for Penn (I think he's for sure winning the Oscar. I've been predicting him since forever, and I'm SO happy I never left him!) Madigan winning was also awesome yet a little predictable. I'm rooting for her to win the Oscar, and I think she will. MBJ also wasn't too surprising, given that Timmy had just won last year, and I didn't think they would give it to him back-to-back. I'm happy for Michael, but personally, I think he was the weakest of the main ensemble. Not even going to talk about Jessie Buckley, her name is already on the Oscar at this point.

I think Timmy's BAFTA and SAG loss definitely affects his Oscar chances, but not to the point where I'm going to predict MBJ to win. I'm sticking with my boy T! And re his comments on ballet and opera, Timmy spoke pure facts. Sorry not sorry. Love ya, T!

WGA and PGA completely 100% solidified OBAA's screenplay and picture win. I genuinely can't envision Sinners winning Picture, sorry. If it happens, sure IG. I really liked Sinners, but I don't think it's on the same level as OBAA.

I think that's everything (briefly) covered? Anyway, now onto the Oscars...

NOTES:

Last year I got 21/23. (I missed animated and international feature, but the respective winners were both my runner up).

If the Academy really goes all out for One Battle this year, I think Teyana Taylor and DiCaprio have a solid shot at winning. Same thing applies to Sinners with Lindo, Jordan, and Mosaku. We'll see very soon.

May the best film win...

PICTURE: One Battle After Another. It's very popular with international voters, and has won basically everything. Don't overthink it. However, if Sinners DOES win, I won't be too surprised.

DIRECTOR: Paul Thomas Anderson. It's his time. Even if Sinners takes Picture, I still think PTA takes director.

ACTRESS: Jessie Buckley. No elaboration needed.

ACTOR: I'm sticking with Chalamet, I've predicted him all season. Jordan's SAG win could have shifted the narrative, sure, but I just don't see him winning. He didn't even win at the Globes in Drama. GG+CC is a decent enough combo to have. DiCaprio could surprise here though...

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Amy Madigan. If they really go out for Sinners, they'll go with Mosaku. If they really go out for One Battle, they'll go with Taylor. I'm predicting neither Madigan has CC, SAG, and a strong career narrative on her side. It would be awesome to see her win. On a side note, if they start with the supporting categories (like they usually do) then we should be able to tell how the night is going to go pretty early.

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Sean Penn. He has SAG and BAFTA, the 2 strongest precursors. I feel very validated for sticking with him since pre-September now haha. I don't get why people are predicting Lindo. He's gotten in nowhere, it would be such a random win. Skarsgård or Del Toro are probably more likely to happen than him imo.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Sinners.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: One Battle After Another.

CASTING: This is a tough one, as it's a brand new category, but I'm going with Sinners because of it's SAG Ensemble win. One Battle and Marty Supreme are also potential frontrunners, I don't know.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: Sentimental Value, c'mon now. It still has momentum, whereas The Secret Agent has run out. SV making it into editing and supp actress for Fanning says everything about it's strength, and is Skarsgård wins, this is officially locked.

ANIMATED FEATURE: KPop Demon Hunters.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: The Perfect Neighbour is the safe pick for this category, but it just doesn't scream "Oscar winner" to me. I really don't know. Maybe they'll go for Mr Nobody Against Putin, a more politically relevant film (AKA: A more obvious Oscar winning documentary). It did win the BAFTA after all...

CINEMATOGRAPHY: One Battle After Another. BAFTA+ASC is a great combo to have. Sinners could surprise here, but I just don't see it. But hey, maybe there's a split between One Battle and Sinners so Train Dreams ends up winning? Sorry, I'm just saying shit now.

EDITING: One Battle After Another. Editing serves as a Best Picture lite category nowadays, plus it's won everywhere it needed too. The only film that could give it a run for it's money is F1.

PRODUCTION DESIGN, COSTUME DESIGN, AND HAIR AND MAKE-UP: Frankenstein. Sinners COULD win hair and makeup, but I think Frankenstein will get all 3, just like Poor Things and Wicked (with the exception of makeup).

VISUAL EFFECTS: Avatar: Fire and Ash, surely. The only way I see this loosing is if the Academy is just sick of the Avatar films and decides to give it it Sinners cause they like the film more. Both are deserving though, but Avatar is just a VFX juggernaut.

SOUND: F1. It's the most showy of the bunch, just like Dune: Part Two last year. I could see a case being made for One Battle or Sinners, more so the latter, but, again, I only see that happening if they REALLY go all out fof the film.

SCORE: Fuck it, One Battle After Another. I think the Academy will be hesitant to give Göransson his 3rd Oscar so soon. I know he's won literally everywhere, but something in my gut is telling me that One Battle will take it. Johnny Greenwood is LONG overdue, and the score of One Battle is arguably his best work yet. A very big gamble on my end, but I think it'll pay off.

SONG: Another big all guts no glory prediction of mine: "I Lied to You" from Sinners. I'm not even going to bother explaining my thought process behind this one.

NOW, the shorts...
My predictions for these are slightly different than most, but I have strong feelings for all 3 of these films.

ANIMATED SHORT: Butterfly.

LIVE ACTION SHORT: Jane Austen's Period Drama.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT: The Devil is Busy.

NOTE: I think the shorts are always the most unpredictable categories, so I could honestly see any of these 15 films winning in their respective category.

Well, that's it! My 2026 Oscar predictions! This season has been so much fun, and it's been awesome spending it with you, and here's to many more! I really can't wait for tonight's ceremony. Love you, take care!

Was listening to you in the background and looked up Joyce Eng's predictions, and she agrees with you on Leo! And she's the GOAT of predicting Oscars.

Leo did the best acting; he played a doting father for pete's sake with real human warmth and believability.He was playing a non- leading- man character and didn;t put on a lot of transforming prosthetics and makup but did it with his own facial and body muscles, as did Penn.Hawk did use makeup ,was very good with Andrew Scott and others but his wooing routine was not believable, which was half of the movie. Timothee was excellent in many ways but he was playing a character not too far from himself so wasn't that much of a stretch. I couldn't differentiate the 2 characters Jordan was playing unless it was by the woman he was with. That may nave been my fault in missing subtleties I could have seen on a bigger screen. However I did catch subtle differences in the various people Wagner Moura was playing so it may have not been my fault. Moura was good. My vote is for Leo but, unlike you, I wouldn't bet on him
And TBH i have not been much of a DiCaprio , Sean Penn or Paul Thomas Anderson fan. Yet they blew me away with this movie!

Best Picture: One Battle After Another

Director: Paul Thomas Anderson

Lead Actress: Jessie Buckley

Lead Actor: Timothee Chalamet

Supporting Actress: Teyana Taylor

Supporting Actor: Sean Penn

Original Screenplay: Sinners

Adapted Screenplay: One Battle After Another

Casting: Sinners

Cinematography: One Battle After Another

Costume: Frankenstein

Makeup: Frankenstein

Production Design: Frankenstein

Score: Sinners

Song: Golden

Sound: F1

VFX: Avatar

Doc Feature: The Perfect Neighbor

International: Sentimental Value

Animated Feature: K-Pop Demon Hunters

Animated Short: Butterfly

Live Action Short: Two People Exchanging Saliva

Doc Short: All the Empty Rooms

Timothee & Leo

I'm rooting for Sinners for the most wins 💯%
1. Best Picture
2. Best Director
3. Best Cinematography
4. Bear. Lead Actor
5. Best Supporting Actress
6. Best Origanl Screenplay

I’d love to see Sirat win sound. I personally wasn’t able to see it until March 13. If that’s the same for most of the academy members, that’s too bad.

Please reply to my comment but I had adram that ami won

Good job but TM will win

i’m literally on the same page with the leo stuff rn 😅