Most Profitable Sports Betting Strategy? (+EV Sports Betting Explained)
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Good framing. The biggest lesson with +EV is that the bet is not “good” just because it wins; it was good if your fair probability was better than the price at the time. I’d also track closing line value and stake size, because a small edge can disappear fast if the number has already moved or you are overbetting thin spots.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-fMdwA2zK0&list=PLtJ7nFyeMChv6NNRjPpHelah8SAlUhmff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCfii_0qFS4&list=PLtJ7nFyeMChv6NNRjPpHelah8SAlUhmff
He is right about one thing you can’t beat the house betting -110. They have vig in every one of those lines so even if you’re hitting right at 52 1/2% you’re still gonna lose because they pad their profit in the odds.
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I get the concept you’re talking about, but the average person is not gonna have more knowledge than the sports books that are set in the odds so your concept is easy. The sports books are setting the odds and they make millions if not billions of dollars a year, but you or someone else could look at a bet and say no that probabilities not that high or not that low. I’m not buying it.
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Yo, what about when you see -110 odds, but the true probability of that line is 55% or more?
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Most Profitable Sports Betting Strategy? (+EV Sports Betting Explained)
I was actually doing that my problem was parlaying but since last month I play everything straight just spreads. But now I see my method did work I just didn’t like the odds but it shouldn’t matter cause I’ll profit over time and less donations. Thank you for the confirmation 💰
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Good explanation. The key shift for me was tracking implied probability versus my fair number before every bet, then only firing when the edge stayed positive after line movement.
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This is solid. Most bettors improve fast once they track every bet and size stakes the same way instead of changing units after wins or losses.
More User Perspectives
Great explanation. The big unlock is converting book odds to implied probability, then only betting when your true estimate is higher than that break-even number.
@ZekeBetsI have just learned about this strategy because I have just recently seen you great video and way to explain this.
@CameronJohnson-t9lNBA players are trash. It’s hard to find a consistent player who hovers around his average all season. Most players have a high volatile output. For instance, say a player averages 15 ppg… but half the time he scores 10 points and the other half of the time he gets 20 points lol. You don’t know if he gone get 10 or 20. So the 15 ppg average is really a facade 🤣 And if u try to alt down and take 10 points, it’s definitely not gonna be no -200. Shit gone be like -650 🤣
@chaz200711What is dude yapping about show the math please I begged you
@genesiskid9847Does that strategy work with Money Line? What stats would you even look into?
It seems to make sense with a player prop with the example shown, but seems like there would be more variables on a money line in finding the actual expected edge?
The way you explain this shit is wild, I could never understand fam THANK YOU💯
@J2dabiggestWhen you say "looking into it". What site/sites are you using when figuring out the EV?
@JakeMercepThanks frank I appreciate it
@thurmangreenDo you have any proof of your results apart from just words lol. Your strategy is right and correct but are YOU even profiting from it??
@omarilowe451Most Profitable Sports Betting Strategy? Don't bet! D)
@igor-b8t1iWhat about using software like rebel betting,oddsjam etc? Do they give real positive ev bets?
@hilomdulom8689so then using this information you could find EV plays at any odds value right? so why just stick to -200s?
@Dylan-rn9jbthank you so much for this information
@natedagoat17I love how you break down +EV betting. Makes it so much easier to understand!
@stboysamrat322I have the same experience with -110. -200 And more is where i am winning.
@martinesr7198I have been struggling with understanding EV, and I think because of this video i'm starting to understand it now. I could not understand it to save my life. Thanks. Now questions because lines move so quick how do we do the research fast enough to be able to take that play?
@Mr.Robinson-u3xHow to find ev while betting
@unknowntraveller4669If something has a probability of 40 percent at even money it just means you on the wrong side not that you cant find value at even money
@BigBreadBetshe is right .the best thing i have head in sport betting.you have gained a like and a sub
@Artictundra422-200? Still confused
@derrickmuwonge5262Why are you against -110s if there’s still a possibility of a discrepancy? Let’s say books have Celtics -6 (-110) but you believe the spread should be Celtics -11 (-110). Wouldn’t it still be a positive EV bet to take Celtics -6(-110)?
@kingsaw5282Hitting right at 69%
@stefanwalker3435What site to use for reaserch
@zaddielo.arzuagamorales1010Your strategy seems pretty sound longterm. However you yourself said some -110 lines have probabilities down to 40%. So if you are able to determine that and take the 60% probabilities at -110 isnt that kind of the same concept as 80% at -250?
@jedsmith111So does he only straight bet ?
@B-From-NCYour sir gained an earned like comment and sub. Finally someone who knows how to speak properly. And know’s what they are talking about. 🔥
@B-From-NCBest way to go is live EV betting
@Tiredofbull80Sb walk me thru ! Yall got discord ?
@1ndOnlySirReeseI don’t understand why the first example was wrong and throwing darts… the Lebron 25+ pts explanation is wrong in my pov because you can’t base your value only on the games he hit this season. You gotta look at the other team, the city they play in, if it’s a back to back game, if a guy like AD isn’t playing, etc. To go back at your first example, if Fan Duel and Pinnacle are giving it a 58% chance to hit and you get +115 on DraftKings then you are getting value since books are considering everything when they set their odds.
@linkyyytBetDestroy is where the magic happens in betting!
@MiraSoultaniQuestion…who is LeBron playing against to get 25 ?
@ronnielovesmambo4160Thank you for the info
@Tiredofbull80Thank you Frank for being a GOAT!
Question, what if we have 50% chance according to the sports book but a 80% chance according to the player stats. Should we still alternate the line or keep it at the number the books gives us?
Just because you did research and found an 80% probability does it mean your bets going to win. It's just like the the roulette theory you can be at the roulette wheel watch Red come up 400 times you bet black because you think it's come up read 400 times it's bound to be black now. Wrong black could not come up for another 5,000 spins.
@Mowersplus84I let to bet on the underdogs, especially at home, for plus money value
@LibraGang81Stop the cap and send the picks for proof ! Payment receipt 🧾
@yamamamama6219will this work on someone who doesnt know the sport?? I only know steph and lebron in nba and I dont watch nba. to be honest I dont watch any sport at all but I just gamble.. is there a trick that will work for me?
@investing2crypto85Just cause lebron hit 75% of the time that does not mean he has a 75% chance cause if heads hit 75% of the time it still has a 50% chance.
@MizzyshortzYou're really the goat 🐐
@antwonjackson2237Frank is once again hitting us with straight up great advice on betting💰💰💰I appreciate it.
@GregDonovan-e5bThat explains why is hard to win off PrizePicks since every single players odds is listed at -119
@talentkidd1348Frank's strategy definitely works
@philturner4936