Kentucky Derby 2026: The 3 Foreign Horses No One Is Talking About

The UAE was one of the slowest in recent years, but if a International horse wins the Biggest race in America, it would be quite interesting as a feat.

Wonder Dean and Danon Bourbon. Trying to do what Forever Young almost did in 2024.

I'm rooting for Wonder Dean!

The race is over 2000m so the best horse at that distance is Hong Kong Star Romantic Warrior he won’t run but it would be cool if he did

I don't believe foreign horses should be allowed to race in the derby it is an american race.

these horses are not even close to being as good as forever young

More people need start watching International horse racing

Well many countries breed major horses.

I might get booed down by this comment, but I believe American Races should only be entered by American horses.

If the powerful one is chase from behind, he wins the derby 💪 good luck guys

The Puma sitting on a big upward move

Japan is excellent at everything, baseball, boxing, horse racing, and making great automobiles

Best finish by a Dubai prep runner was Forever Young in 2024. Most of the rest were completely awful. Why do they get two horses in? Talk about diluting the field. Any horse running in the derby using Dubai as a prep are auto throw outs til one can prove they can win.

My first impression of Wonder Dean's UAE Derby was that it wasn't as impressive as recent Japanese winners Crown Pride, Derma Sotogake and Forever Young. However, he did something that Forever Young couldn't do that day, ie, run down a lone front runner on a speed-favoring track. He also ran strongly past the post, so he's arguably the only horse in the Ky Derby field who is proven over 10f. Danon Bourbon might be even better, but from a betting standpoint, I think you have them reversed. WD looks a decent win chance and a "must-include" in vertical exotics, having already proved that he can ship and also get the distance. DB would be more of a "win or out" proposition for me, as it often is with an unbeaten horse trying something he's never done.

You're right guy!!Nice week!!

Emerging Market is the ONLY horse who may beat Renegade

These three "foreign" horses all have DEEP American breeding.

Foreign horses should not be allowed to race in our country EVER unless the horse is purchased by an AMERICAN

Renegade will win hands down. That horse is a monster. ❤

Sorry, but gotta disagree.

Everyone now foolishly thinks just because Forever Young ran a nice Derby that the foreign entrants are now suddenly all big threats every year. Not buying it. Danon Bourbon beat nothing and this years UAE Derby was one of the slowest in recent years. None of three invaders mentioned in this vid look like serious threats to win the Derby IMO.

They are used to race in very large fields and they navigate through traffic so it shouldn’t be a problem for them. Come pair with the US horses that run in small fields and can’t carry that much weight for a 1 1/4 distance

I’m going to wait to see what Danon Bourbon looks like on the track. He looks the part, has the foundation, has the breeding, and is the right type to do well in the Derby. But as you said, the travel is always hard. Usually you can narrow the field down based on the works and how they look. So while I have my top group, I decided not to throw anyone out yet, even though I think some are horse for the courses and overrated. There are so many competitive horses this year. I might just do one huge superfecta Derby bet that day, pray, and call it a day.

Commandment
Experience at CD prior? Yes ✅
Raced at 2? Yes ✅
Won at 2? Yes ✅
Minimum 5 starts prior to Derby? 5 ✅
A 95 or higher Beyer? 101 ✅
Sub-38 final 3/8th: 36.5 ✅
Sub-13 final 1/8th: 12.3 ✅
Derby odds: 2nd or 3rd choice, 5-1 to 8-1
Checks boxes: 7/7 or 100%

Further Ado
Experience at CD prior? Yes ✅
Raced at 2? Yes ✅
Won at 2? Yes ✅
Minimum 5 starts prior to Derby? 6 ✅
A 95 or higher Beyer? 106 ✅
Sub-38 final 3/8th: 37.5 ✅
Sub-13 final 1/8th: 13.0 ❌
Derby odds: 2nd or 3rd choice, 5-1 to 8-1
Checks boxes: 6/7 or 85.7%

Renegade
Experience at CD prior? No ❌
Raced at 2? Yes ✅
Won at 2? Yes ✅
Minimum 5 starts prior to Derby? 5 ✅
A 95 or higher Beyer? 98 ✅
Sub-38 final 3/8th: 36.6 ✅
Sub-13 final 1/8th: 11.8 ✅
Derby odds: Likely chalk, 4-1 to 5-1
Checks boxes: 6/7 or 85.7%

The Puma
Experience at CD prior? No ❌
Raced at 2? No ❌
Won at 2? No ❌
Minimum 5 starts prior to Derby? 4 ❌
A 95 or higher Beyer? 100 ✅
Sub-38 final 3/8th: 36.9 ✅
Sub-13 final 1/8th: 12.7 ✅
Derby odds: 10-1 to 12-1
Checks boxes: 3/7 or 42.9%

Chief Wallabee
Experience at CD prior? No. ❌
Raced at 2? No. ❌
Won at 2? No. ❌
Minimum 5 starts prior to Derby? 3 ❌
A 95 or higher Beyer? 100 ✅
Sub-38 final 3/8th: 12.6 ✅
Sub-13 final 1/8th: 36.9 ✅
Derby odds: 12-1 to 15-1
Checks boxes: 3/7 or 42.9%

So Happy
Experience at CD prior? No. ❌
Raced at 2? Yes ✅
Won at 2? Yes ✅
Minimum 5 starts prior to Derby? 4 ❌
A 95 or higher Beyer? 100 ✅
Sub-38 final 3/8th: 37.7 ✅
Sub-13 final 1/8th: 12.9 ✅
Derby odds: 15-1 or higher
Checks boxes: 5/7 or 71.4%

Silent Tactic
Experience at CD prior? No ❌
Raced at 2? Yes ✅
Won at 2? Yes ✅
Minimum 5 starts prior to Derby? 6 ✅
A 95 or higher Beyer? 91 ❌
Sub-38 final 3/8th: 37.4 ✅
Sub-13 final 1/8th: 12.5 ✅
Derby odds: 15-1 or higher
Checks boxes: 5/7 or 71.4%

Incredibolt
Experience at CD prior? Yes (2 for 2) ✅
Raced at 2? Yes ✅
Won at 2? Yes ✅
Minimum 5 starts prior to Derby? 5 ✅
A 95 or higher Beyer? 88 ❌
Sub-38 final 3/8th: 36.1 ✅
Sub-13 final 1/8th: 11.9 ✅
Derby odds: 20-1 or higher
Checks boxes: 6/7 or 85.7%

Emerging Market
Experience at CD prior? No ❌
Raced at 2? No ❌
Won at 2? No ❌
Minimum 5 starts prior to Derby? 2 ❌
A 95 or higher Beyer? 97 ✅
Sub-38 final 3/8th: 37.5 ✅
Sub-13 final 1/8th: 12.5 ✅
Derby odds: 15-1 or higher
Checks boxes: 3/7 or 42.9%

Pavlovian
Experience at CD prior? No ❌
Raced at 2? Yes ✅
Won at 2? Yes ✅
Minimum 5 starts prior to Derby? 10 ✅
A 95 or higher Beyer? 90 ❌
Sub-38 final 3/8th: 37.8 ✅
Sub-13 final 1/8th: 12.6 ✅
Derby odds: 30-1 or higher
Checks boxes: 5/7 or 71.4%

Golden Tempo
Experience at CD prior? No ❌
Raced at 2? Yes ✅
Won at 2? No ❌
Minimum 5 starts prior to Derby? 4 ❌
A 95 or higher Beyer? 88 ❌
Sub-38 final 3/8th: 37.2 ✅
Sub-13 final 1/8th: 12.4 ✅
Derby odds: 30-1 or higher
Checks boxes: 3/7 or 42.9%

Potente
Experience at CD prior? No ❌
Raced at 2? No ❌
Won at 2? No ❌
Minimum 5 starts prior to Derby? 3 ❌
A 95 or higher Beyer? 95 ✅
Sub-38 final 3/8th: 38.9 ❌
Sub-13 final 1/8th: 13.3 ❌
Derby odds: 20-1 or higher
Checks boxes: 1/7 or 14.3%

Fulleffort
Experience at CD prior? No ❌
Raced at 2? Yes ✅
Won at 2? Yes ✅
Minimum 5 starts prior to Derby? 7 ✅
A 95 or higher Beyer? 94 ❌
Sub-38 final 3/8th: 38.1 ❌
Sub-13 final 1/8th: 13.0 ❌
Derby odds: 30-1 or higher
Checks boxes: 3/7 or 42.9%

Chip Honcho
Experience at CD prior? Yes ✅
Raced at 2? Yes ✅
Won at 2? Yes ✅
Minimum 5 starts prior to Derby? 6 ✅
A 95 or higher Beyer? 92 ❌
Sub-38 final 3/8th: 39.6 ❌
Sub-13 final 1/8th: 13.8 ❌
Derby odds: 40-1 or higher
Checks boxes: 4/7 or 57.1%

Last year’s Top 3 KYD finishers

Sovereignty
Experience at CD prior? Yes ✅
Raced at 2? Yes ✅
Did he win at 2? Yes ✅
Minimum 5 starts prior to Derby? 5 ✅
A 95 or higher Beyer? 95 ✅
Sub-38 final 3/8th: 37.1 ✅
Sub-13 final 1/8th: 12.4 ✅
Derby odds: 7.98 (3rd choice)
Checks boxes: 7/7 or 100% 🏆

Journalism
Experience at CD prior? No ❌
Raced at 2? Yes ✅
Won at 2? Yes ✅
Minimum 5 starts prior to Derby? 5 ✅
A 95 or higher Beyer? 108 ✅
Sub-38 final 3/8th: 37.4 ✅
Sub-13 final 1/8th: 12.3 ✅
Derby odds: 3.42 (chalk)
Checks boxes: 6/7 or 85.7%

Baeza
Experience at CD prior? No. ❌
Raced at 2? Yes. ✅
Won at 2? No. ❌
Minimum 5 starts prior to Derby? 4 ❌
A 95 or higher Beyer? 101 ✅
Sub-38 final 3/8th: 38.1 ❌
Sub-13 final 1/8th: 12.6 ✅
Derby odds: 13.86
Checks boxes: 3/7 or 42.9%

Recent Derby Champions

Rich Strike
Experience at CD prior? Yes ✅
Raced at 2? Yes ✅
Won at 2? Yes ✅
Minimum 5 starts prior to Derby? 7 ✅
A 95 or higher Beyer? 84 ❌
Sub-38 final 3/8th: 36.9 ✅
Sub-13 final 1/8th: 13.1 ❌
Derby odds: 80.80
Checks boxes: 5/7 or 71.4%

Mage
Experience at CD prior? No ❌
Raced at 2? No ❌
Won at 2? No ❌
Minimum 5 starts prior to Derby? 3 ❌
A 95 or higher Beyer? 94 ❌
Sub-38 final 3/8th: 38.2 ❌
Sub-13 final 1/8th: 13.2 ❌
Derby odds: 15.21
Checks boxes: 0/7 or 0%

Mystik Dan
Experience at CD prior? Yes ✅
Raced at 2? Yes ✅
Won at 2? Yes ✅
Minimum 5 starts prior to Derby? 6 ✅
A 95 or higher Beyer? 101 ✅
Sub-38 final 3/8th: 37.9 ✅
Sub-13 final 1/8th: 12.8 ✅
Derby odds: 18.61
Checks boxes: 7/7 or 100%

Dual qualified for sub-38 / sub-13
1998: Real Quiet ✅/✅
1999: Charismatic ✅/✅
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus ✅/✅
2001: Monarchos ✅/✅
2002: War Emblem ✅/✅
2003: Funny Cide ✅/✅
2004: Smarty Jones ✅/✅
2005: Giacomo ✅/✅
2006: Barbaro ✅/✅
2007: Street Sense ✅/✅
2008: Big Brown ❌/✅
2009: Mine That Bird ❌/❌
2010: Super Saver ❌/✅
2011: Animal Kingdom ❌/❌
2012: I’ll Have Another ✅/✅
2013: Orb ✅/✅
2014: California Chrome ✅/✅
2015: American Pharoah ✅/✅
2016: Nyquist ✅/✅
2017: Always Dreaming ✅/✅
2018: Justify ✅/✅
2019: Country House ✅/✅
2020: Authentic ❌/❌
2021: Medina Spirit ❌/❌
2022: Rich Strike ✅/❌
2023: Mage ❌/❌
2024: Mystik Dan ✅/✅
2025: Sovereignty ✅/✅
Qualified under 38s: 21/28 or 75%
Qualified under 13s: 22/28 or 78.6%
Dual qualifiers: 20/28 or 71.4%

Raced at 2 since 1993: 31/33 or 93.9%
Exceptions: Justify, Mage

Min. 5 starts since ‘93: 29/33 or 87.9%
Exceptions: Big Brown (3), Animal Kingdom (4), Justify (3), Mage (3)

To me, the minimum 5 starts carries more weight than dual qualifying for the final 3/8ths and 1/8ths. The 87.9% since 1993 is a stronger barometer than the 71.4% since 1998 of running sub-38s/13s. And minimum 95 Beyer figure also is a stronger barometer dating back to Lil E. Tee at 85%.

From 1998 (or perhaps before that since the stat only shows starting from 1998) through 2007, we saw dual qualifiers. Even Giacomo dual qualified. Then surprisingly, Big Brown does go over :38 but only slightly (38.08). Then Mine That Bird and Animal Kingdom did not qualify for either. Then from 2012-2019, they hit every time. This decade has been poor. Only Mystik Dan and Sovereignty ran under 38s/13s.

The experience thing at Churchill is the least important area to ace. So what if Renegade never ran at CD? Since 1993, only 8 winners ran at CD prior to their KYD win.

1996: Grindstone
1998: Real Quiet
2001: Monarchos
2007: Street Sense
2010: Super Saver
2022: Rich Strike
2024: Mystik Dan
2025: Sovereignty

Since 1993, 25/33 (75.8%) winners never ran at CD prior to their Derby win. Only in more recent times has it been a little more important with 3 of our last 4 winners. If I took out CD experience, Commandment and Renegade would be the only 2 horses going 6 for 6.

So Happy at 4 starts might hurt more as 87.9% of winners since 1993 had a minimum 5 starts.

Commandment: 7/7, 100%
Renegade: 6/7, 85.7%
Further Ado: 6/7, 85.7%
Incredibolt: 6/7, 85.7%
Silent Tactic: 5/7, 71.4%
Pavlovian: 5/7, 71.4%
So Happy: 5/7, 71.4%

But then again, you would’ve never got Mystik Dan and Sovereignty going 7 for 7 as they had CD experience over Sierra Leone and Journalism, the one area they had a leg up.

With a minimum 100 Brisnet speed figure
Commandment: 103
Further Ado: 105
Pavlovian: 100
Incredibolt: 101
So Happy: 103

Renegade has a 98 Beyer and 99 Brisnet speed figure as career highs. He doesn’t hit the 100 minimum for Brisnet. Sovereignty did not hit 100 last year for Brisnet with only a 99 but did earn a 95 Beyer.

Incredibolt has a career high 88 Beyer and 100 Brisnet. DRF and Brisnet seems to agree the Arkansas Derby was not a fast race but Brisnet seems to believe the Virginia Derby was a fast race. Should you believe in DRF or Brisnet? Again, Sovereignty did not hit 100 Brisnet last year but still won the Derby.

Strongest Barometers
1. Raced at 2 (31/33 since ‘93)
2. Won at 2 (30/33 since ‘93)
3. Min 5 starts (29/33 since ‘93)
4. Min 95 Beyer (29/34 since ‘92)
5. Sub-13 1/8th (22/28 since ‘98)
6. Min 100 Brisnet (20/26 since ‘00)
7. Sub-38 3/8th (21/28 since ‘98)
8. CD experience (8/33 since ‘93)

Commandment: 8/8 or 100%
Further Ado: 7/8 or 87.5%
Incredibolt: 7/8 or 87.5%
Renegade: 6/8 or 75%
Pavlovian: 6/8 or 75%
So Happy: 6/8 or 75%
Silent Tactic: 5/8 or 62.5%

Based on / point system with No. 1 getting 8 points and No. 8 getting 1 point….

Commandment: 36/36
Further Ado: 32/36
Incredibolt: 31/36
Renegade: 30/36
So Happy: 29/36
Pavlovian: 28/36
Silent Tactic: 27/36

$40 Win: Commandment, $200-$240
$20 Win: Incredibolt, $400
$20 Win: Pavlovian, $600-$800
$10 Place/Show: Pavlovian, $100-$300

Trust me on this, Pavlovian is gonna fight back if he sees a horse trying to pass him down the stretch. Nobody is paying attention to his efforts in the Sunland Derby or Louisiana Derby. I hope to get 40-1 to make over a grand on him.

Danon Bourbon is a monster. It’ll be DB and Silent Tactic running in the top 2 slots in the KD. DB runs similarly to So Happy, just off the leaders, and ST can drive through traffic.

👍👍👍 Very insightful. Have liked Danon Bourbon all along. He fits into my picks/strategy. 🏇

Wonder Dean gets strong the longer the track due to his stamina. The Derby is in the sweet spot for where his grinding style can work, but it would be better if the distance was longer. And Wonder Dean is used to travel now so unless he gets sick he should be fine. But if any of the favorites for the derby however have even a bit of an off day he will have a chance to grind them down. His Sire side is wild, Deep Impact, Sunday Silence and Brians Time, all pretty big lineages in JRA known for deep stamina wells. The damesire side is interesting cause its got Wonder Acute, Bago and Charismatic, Not seeming like much but its a good mix for a Dirt racing horse esp out of Japan. Not super fast, but can run on heavy dirt and has Stamina to go with it.