Kentucky Derby 2026—Historic Finish + Race Breakdown

It's been a while but hope you are well! I caught last week's video and had wps, dd, and pick 3 with to elvis! I agree the caw's cost us a good deal of money there but great call nonetheless! I wish I would have stayed high on golden tempo like I was back in January but those kdfw bets with all others over renegade paid!

Pedigree won last Saturday. The top 2 finishers have Curlin and Bernardini in their blood. Golden Tempo is a son of Curlin from a Bernardini broodmare. Bernardini carries the blood of AP Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, and Spectacular Bid. Renegade is an Into Mischief son but his dam has Curlin and Bernardini on both sides.

Ocelli is by Connect, a son of Curlin. Connect’s mom, Bullville Belle, is a daughter of Holy Bull. Ocelli’s mom is Zalia who was sired by Scat Daddy who sired Justify. Zalia’s mom is Vivo Per Lei, a daughter of Empire Maker. Empire Maker, 2003 Belmont winner, sired Pioneerof the Nile and Bodemeister. PotN sired American Pharoah and Bodemeister sired Always Dreaming.

Curlin’s blood hit the trifecta in Derby 152 and Bernardini hit the exacta. Bloodlines are starting to matter again in the Derby. This was one of the most overlooked aspect for this year’s Derby: PEDIGREE. Golden Tempo’s sire stats was 7.7 AWD, tied with Wonder Dean whose grandsire is the Japanese GOAT, Deep Impact who was Sunday Silence’s greatest son. On GT’s dam’s sire, it was 7.5. Golden Tempo and Wonder Dean were the only two in the field with a minimum 7.5 AWD on the top and bottom. Wonder Dean had the best stamina pedigree while Golden Tempo had most of the best dirt horses in his blood.

In a sire’s progeny
AWD = Average Winning Distance

Renegade
Sire stats: AWD 6.9
Dam’s sire stats: AWD 7.1

Albus
Sire stats: AWD 6.2
Dam’s sire stats: AWD 7.5

Intrepido
Sire stats: AWD 6.3
Dam’s sire stats: AWD 7.5

Litmus Test
Sire stats: AWD 7.2
Dam’s sire stats: AWD 7.1

Commandment
Sire stats: AWD 6.9
Dam’s sire stats: AWD 6.8

Danon Bourbon
Sire stats: AWD 7.1
Dam’s sire stats: AWD 7.6

So Happy
Sire stats: AWD 6.6
Dam’s sire stats: AWD 7.3

Wonder Dean
Sire stats: AWD 7.7
Dam’s sire stats: AWD 8.3

Incredibolt
Sire stats: AWD 6.9
Dam’s sire stats: AWD 7.4

Chief Wallabee
Sire stats: AWD 7.4
Dam’s sire stats: AWD 7.7

Potente
Sire stats: AWD 6.9
Dam’s sire stats: AWD 7.4

Emerging Market
Sire stats: AWD 7.1
Dam’s sire stats: AWD 7.8

Pavlovian
Sire stats: AWD 6.1
Dam’s sire stats: AWD 7.2

Six Speed
Sire stats: AWD 7.2
Dam’s sire stats: AWD 7.7

Further Ado
Sire stats: AWD 7.5
Dam’s sire stats: AWD 6.8

Golden Tempo
Sire stats: AWD 7.7
Dam’s sire stats: AWD 7.5

Ocelli
Sire stats: AWD 7.2
Dam’s sire stats: AWD 7.2

Robusta
Sire stats: AWD 7.0
Dam’s sire stats: AWD 6.9

Minimum AWD 7.5 on top and bottom
Wonder Dean
Golden Tempo

Wonder Dean had a running style that had us tossing him regardless of his pedigree. Ocelli was solid at 7.2 on the top and bottom. As great as Into Mischief has been as a sire, his AWD remains at 6.9. Ocelli’s blood still came from the likes of Curlin and Empire Maker who won at 12F and who grandsired American Pharoah.

Guess who bred Golden Tempo? The legendary Phipps family. The ones who bred Buckpasser, Relaxing, Personal Ensign, and Easy Goer. Then Easy Goer and Personal Ensign produced My Flag who produced Storm Flag Flying. Remember when Rachel Alexandra lost in the 2010 Personal Ensign Stakes at 10F, her first and only attempt at that distance and her final race? She lost to Persistently, a Phipps horse. That black silks with the cherry red cap is legendary for stayers.

Next year, we cannot overlook pedigree and breeding operations. Last year, Godolphin won the Derby for the very first time. They’re the most successful breeding operation in the world. These different stables are like different teams you root for in team sports. This year, Phipps Stable nailed it. Back in 2018, Justify was majority owned by WinStar who also owned Tiznow and Super Saver.

There are so many things to look at when picking a Derby winner: seasoning, number of starts, consistency, familiarity at Churchill, speed figures, class, running style, jockey, trainer, closing fractions… But the one many of us started to forget about were the BLOODLINES. We need to pay attention to this aspect next year. Lesson learned. Curlin was the big winner. His revenge on Into Mischief for last year. Curlin won 5 10F races in his career: ‘07 JCGC, ‘07 BC Classic, ‘08 Jaguar Trophy, ‘08 DWC, and ‘08 JCGC. He was finally due to have a son winning the Derby.

Bernardini carries the blood of three legendary horses from the 1970s whose names started with the letter S: Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Spectacular Bid. AP Indy was the 1992 HotY. Cara Rafaela was no slouch herself under Lukas and won multiple stakes races. Bernardini was the 2006 3YO male champion who won the Preakness, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup. Bernardini also has bloodlines of Mr. Prospector, Dr. Fager, Buckpasser, and Northern Dancer. Has a remarkable pedigree. Great job, Darley.

Gotta pay attention to the pedigree, breeders, and owners next year. Beyond the jockey and trainer. Congrats, Golden Tempo, Phipps/St. Elias Stable, Curlin/Bernardini, Cherie, Jose, the 9.5F Louisiana Derby, and gate 16 again. And props to Brisnet for providing AWD stats and giving the LA Derby a legitimate speed figure over the Beyer boys…

2026 Louisiana Derby
DRF: 90
Brisnet: 102

Too bad 22 didn't win