How Bookmakers React to £100,000 Bets Like This
Video Overview & Insights
Something unusual happened at the Grand National… and if you understood what was going on, there was a clear trading opportunity.
The $7 Million Myocard Bet: Kerry Packer Australian Billionaire and biggest punter ever, largest recorded single-race wager was a massive $7 million on a horse named Myocard in the 1987 Sydney Cup at Randwick, Sydney. Ironically, Myocard was beaten by another horse that Packer actually owned (Major Drive), causing him to lose the wager.
This was Kerry Packer in 1987, 38 years ago, when the Australian $ was high. He had many million dollar bets and some bookmakers retired to Queensland on his betting as he was a terrible judge. £100 grand bet was peanuts to him, let alone in today's money. Of course there was no internet although laying off occurred of course. He got bored and eventually turned to Vegas casinos.
In this video, I break down the moment a bookmaker accepted a £100,000 bet at 8/1 on I Am Maximus — and how that single decision triggered a chain reaction in the market.
Most people saw a headline. Traders saw something very different!
Why can’t bookmakers just take the hit and go bankrupt. Much more fun
You’ll discover:
How on-course bookmakers really manage risk
People want to know why you are betting this amount even in small portions he was doing the world a favour telling everyone this.
Why large bets rarely stay “unhedged”
How the betting exchange now drives pricing
Why hide it, it's was JPs money every man and his dog knows who's bet it was.
What caused the late price collapse on I Am Maximus
And how you could have profited from the move
I was at Aintree and 2 minutes before the off they was running around like headless chickens taking all the prices down to 4-1. Ok the horse won but It was a disgusting sp for a grand national. About time the bookies got shafted.
This is a real-world example of how betting markets actually function behind the scenes — and why understanding market mechanics gives you a huge edge.
If you trade horse racing markets, this is exactly the sort of situation you should be looking for.
Jesus you have a monopoly on boring, there was no bet, it’s Paul Byrne, and dick head Dineen looking for publicity,, as Byrne has bought
Pitches, and hooked up Dineen, as he has now media exposure, the ticket was pure fiction
Key takeaway:
When a bookmaker takes a massive position, the market often tells you what happens next — if you know how to read it.
You took 12 mins, for something that should of taking 1 🙄😡
🎯 Want to learn how to spot moves like this in real time?
Check out Bet Angel and start trading with the same tools professionals use.
The truth is, bookies will always thake the £100k bet, and if they lose, they will ask for a million different verification documents with a team of lawyers behind them, and will find a loophole to refuse paying out, and will offer a £5 free bet. It's just how it is.
#BetfairTrading #HorseRacing #Betting #SportsTrading
so if i bet 100k id want the ticket , why has bookie got the ticket , cause he did it himself ?
More User Perspectives
i am confused! A BOOKMAKER TAKES A BET , DECIDES IT IS TO BIG TO STAND IF IT WINS ,SO LAYS IT OFF AT A LOWER PRICE THAN HE LAID!!! REALLY
@michealmatthews9377Barney Curly sprung to mind as soon as you mentioned bookmaker and telephone in the same sentence 🤣
@greenfilly5356OMG GET TO THE POINT !!!
@HumphryGokartThere were a few bets with I am Maximus doubled with home by the Lee which meant bookies wanted the hedge before the off. Also how much money was traded in play? I am Maximus’s odds probably went double figures in running although not sure of the liquidity. It’s a 15 minute race so there is a big window to potentially get out of dodge.
@Jjm-t9iInteresting video. Can you do one on the 69 yo irishman who won €560k on lucky 63 at Cheltenham.
@whodouthinkuareThe game is bent. Not too many years back a 1/14 was beaten at Lingfield. Study form all you like, but if the jockey is bent you are in trouble.
@antypost4225In my opinion, the bookmaker made a fundamental and costly error here announcing they'd taken a £100k bet on it, particularly before they had 'traded' and sold any of the liability on. Because such a piece of information going out on national TV is only going to have one effect on the price. Not just because there is obviously a lot of confidence in the runner from someone likely high profile, but traders will jump on it knowing which direction the price is sure to head.
So the result is they are forced to lay-off at a far lower price than they themselves laid the bet at. It doesn't make sense to scare the market like this. Massive blunder and would have cost them a lot of money as they'd have been tempted to stand more of the bet in a national on the basis it is now trading far lower so they'd be taking a substantial loss in equity to lay it off, and also that one would assume there is a very high chance it will be beaten anyway.
Horses racing is complete information. What happens is a gamble. You base your decision on the information provided. Money always comes before a races due to the 100000 at the racetrack and millions of others on phones and in betting shops just before the off. The thing with racing is if you can spot the things that stick out in the information you can make a good informed bet.
@pheas2708I understand the concept of laying it after it's been backed in, but if you don't already have a position on it to win before its backed in, are you then relying on it drifting back out or just hoping it loses?
I have good information for when some serious bets are being placed with a couple of major books, but often they adjust the price quickly and thus the opportunity from what I can tell is gone as I've not been able to back it at the higher price. It's usually night before so the liquidity on the exchange isn't much.
As per every day, I enthusiastically chucked my lucky darts at the Racing Post on Grand National day and I enthusiastically did my boIIocks in.
@HorseRaclngEnthusiastBetting is not a head count it is a money count One person can move the market.
@RETEW45Hello I’m really enjoying working through your videos, have found them very insightful. Do you have any where you analyse and trade races through the day in one video? A sort of typical day trading race after race. I’ve enjoyed the pre off videos and think it would be cool if you did one continuous video of a day and how you go about things in a race by race basis.
Cheers
Am I viewing this correctly, bookmaker layed at 8-1, $9.00, and backed at below $9.00, is that not a loss?
@Michele-p5gInteresting that the move also ended up being reflected in the industry SP, i.e. it was supposedly mirrored in the shops and on their websites. Do we know how industry SP is calculated these days?
@Ken_H_You have said in a vid , paraphrasing " give me a grand and i can double it, however i could not put 100k through the market". In such short, hectic time period i can't appreciate how this massive bet could be hedged by a bookie.
@JonJon-rj6xoHi Peter, what software were you using to visualise the data at the 8:30 mark?
@zacwebb9363If the bookmaker for example reckons that I am maximus will win and decides he has to lay off at 8-1 to break even. What if he had waited and could only secure a price of less than 8's. It's then a loss. Don't know what the on course tote paid.
@Michael-g6x1tYou can use betangel to alert you when hedging is happening if you know what to look out for
@xfoxukHang on though. If youre trading why hedge at all, why not see the value and let it run. This is my problme with bet angel, it dosen't encourage a value angle approach to trading
@hortic07You really can trade on information
I remember about a month ago where Dan Skelton admitted that his horse (which had went favourite) admitted on TV that they were just using the race as a "run" due to the ground
It fell out the back of the TV
I remember watching one of previews for Grand national, and someone said that JP will decide which one of his horses will go as a favourite. But I refused to accept that one man can dictate a market like National. It is still unclear if the bet came from JP. and Paul Byrne is also a close associate of JP. Nevertheless, it was one of the strangest Nationals I have traded from the past 12 years. I was able to trade and get something out of other horses, but I am Maximus was a challegne that I failed to get something out of.
@xentioneris maximus worth backing for next year
@martinwilby8942Porque não tem dublagem em Português-BR?
@backhorseracing-betfair6030It's a pity the receipt isn't timestamped, because that would be a fascinating piece of the puzzle here. For the size of the bet, it would be odd for them to announce that they are a distressed backer and hamper their own trading activity... is it more plausible by the time they announced the news on ITV Sport that they were mostly or already out of the market? (e.g. between one or more of Betfair, Betdaq, Smarkets and Matchbook)
@jasoncookuk