HOLY SH*T! Did You See Commodity Prices

Gold is at an all time high and getting higher. You have to consider geopolitical risk. The dollar became the primary reserve asset after 1991, collapse of Soviet Union. After seizure of Russian assets gold has returned as the primary reserve asset. This is driving precious metals. Gold did poorly in 2020 and 2021. This is driving precious metals. Economy is slowing causing oil to cheapen. No geopolitics in your analysis.

Gold is increasing for 3 reasons - 1) market indicators showing that at least a major correction is coming 2) threats of a currency reset with gold held as a partial guarantee of value 3) devaluation of the dollar as a) the Fed pumps $40b a month of liquidity into the system b)Trump increases military budget by 50% c)Trump sets up Fannie May and Freddy Mac to fail by committing their $200b margin of safety to take over high risk mortgages from his donors

Haha! Gold is underperforming 😂
I have 130% gains since I bought 2023 😄

"No inflation? Just curious...have you been to any stores in the last month? Shocker: TIPS do not actually protect from the full amount of inflation.

"And the longer it goes

on, the more straight up it goes, the

more it's going to tilt towards 17 and

less toward 100." OK...

Wtf are you talking about gold is up more than 150%. Silver just lagged a few months. Also, the historical gsr is much lower than 50. We aren't even there yet. What are you smoking?

Gold Price = Fear Index
Silver Price = Industry Index
Copper Price = Economy Index

Deflation is the biggest risk and will crash gold and silver. Get out of the precious metals craze and buy into the safety of the US dollar and treasury bonds. Be con troversial to what everybody is screaming on YouTube! Thank you Jeff for your astute and sober analysis.

1:37 and that is why i loaded slv puts today

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Content! Thanks!! Can see some less positive comments! Please, address content not person! This channel is Top level! Of course we can have different views, and the Macro Economics are much more complex than most people can grasp! Theory is Important BASE line, but of course there are also other variables to consider! Human Psychology is as relevant, and still in the end, the"invisible hands" can come back any minute so why not Learn Basic Macro Economics to at least see the Threats and then Invest & Speculate in a Comfortable Ratio!
Again Great Thanks for a TOP channel, highly Appreciate it! Wish All a Great 2026 Year ⭐️🗽🇺🇸💰👋

Silver is in a 4 year shortage, how does the supply problem get solved without higher prices? Mines take years to be developed. How does it get closed in a short term?

I’m taking the contrarian side here: Jeff is likely correct, just early. We are staring at a high-probability liquidation event or deflationary crash.

Jeff’s Argument for Deflation

In his video, Jeff predicts a "liquidation event" driven by global monetary tightening. He argues that the recent "insane" price action in silver and copper isn't a sign of health, but a speculative supply squeeze destined to hit a wall. His evidence is compelling:

The Copper & Silver "Doom Loop": Jeff calls these moves unsustainable, warning silver could retreat to $17 as deflation takes over.

Gold as a Warning: Jeff notes gold is rising as a safe haven for deflationary fear, or depression, not just inflation. It performs best when markets fear collapse, not just dollar debasement.

The Oil Glut: With 1.4 billion barrels on the water and a market in contango, Jeff sees definitive proof that global demand is cratering.

Eurodollar System Failure: He warns that "collateral trouble" in this system poses a massive liquidation risk to all commodities.

The Copper-to-Gold Ratio: Jeff’s "can't mistake" signal. Copper (growth) is losing to gold (fear), screaming that a recession is the real story.

My Perspective: The Arithmetic of the Correction

While I agree with Jeff's framework, my own expectations for the "floor" are slightly different:

The Silver Price: While Jeff sees $17, I think $40 is more realistic. However, since silver is now 57% industrial, it will likely be slammed harder vis-a-vis gold than in previous commodity bull cycles when the broader deflationary trend takes over.

The Oil Outcome: I suspect prices eventually shoot to $80 or $90 because OPEC+ lacks the spare capacity to keep prices low. This will only cause further economic harm.

The Geopolitical Play: Regarding Venezuela, The U.S. is likely using the "Panama playbook": let the country collapse, then mop up at the last minute. It is the American way. It will take a decade to get Venezuela back to full output.

Global Contagion: We are interconnected. If one part of the global system fails, the ripple effect will be felt from the U.S. to China and beyond.

The Bottom Line

Jeff concludes we are in a "flat beverage" economy stagnant and depressed where the real threat is "impoverishment" from previous years, not current inflation.

As a stacker, this is a bitter pill. It’s easy to say "this time is different" to protect your ego, but that is a recipe for getting "rekt." We are likely approaching a 2008-style moment. I personally see silver hitting $40 and gold in the mid-to-high 3000s during a broader market crash. Stay humble, look at the contrarian view, and remember 1980 and 2011.

Yea I wish his take on Silver was true but... we ain't re-instating the Monroe doctrine with gun boat diplomacy and chasing down and intercepting oil tankers of othe nuclear armed countries because everything is peachy... this is happening due to dollar debasrment... not saying the world's economies arnt "flat beverage" but there are some geopolitical in play that would beg to differ with his stances...

This sounds like government funded channel

Silver... a 3000 year history with a 60 year anomaly as a result of industrial mining of copper, zinc etc. It's apparent that a ratio of 100:1 is too high and 16:1 is two low.
The correct answer as it turns out was revealed years ago by Douglas Adams and is in fact 42. The lost question was in fact, "What is the correct gold silver ratio?"

Applying this to $5000 gold, we get a price of $119.04 for the closing 2026 price.

Great job on PBD

The guy has a very narrow vision of things. It is true, for example, that precious metals did not pick straight up when money started printing in 2020. But - the inflation to take place in real life - it takes some time. Monetary inflation took time in 2020 - but the price inflation starts coming 1,5 years more after that and on. There are also geopolitical events that influence it, they kicked out in 2022 and on. And his understanding in supply and demand is quite limiting - he thinks that when demand surges, let's say in silver - the supply will miraculously kick in straight on accordingly ..this is when you live in the ''world of charts'' and not in the world of pickles and bulldozers...

Yes...yes it is... different...Gold dollar valuation=1913 gold price divided by the current gold price...$20.67/$4488.50 = $0.00462cents...way less than a penny...this means we are buying silver at about 1/3 the 1913 price... it's a bargain...if you think silver can stay at such a low price I would you are in error...if you do the same calc with silver it verifies this...silver has a long way before it settles at new very high level🎉

Flat beverage,wasn't that the name of some obscure prog band from the U.K in the 70s?

I have found, over time and experience, that explaining things to Americans is a waste of knowledge

Question. If your right on your past few videos...

Why did Buffet move half a bill in cash?

What deflationary outbreak are you talking about I would like to know.

You miss the relation between gold and inflation. You need to understand gold in terms of domestic purchasing power not dollar relative to other currencies. Gold rises most due to REAL cost of living/inflation vs interest rates . Real yields are likely negative! Prices have NOT come down, you are simply talking about inflation rate of change which is not constructive in investing nor cost of living.

Essential metals - Nickel, Copper, Iron Ore, Silver, Cobalt ect ect. Buy RIO, VALE, BHP. Get in on the new super cycle.

I’ve been tuning into this dude for several years. Serious question has he ever been bullish on anything? Thank God, I only listen and never act on his advice.

News flash Jeff, not every person on the planet uses the dollar. Some people use Rupees, some use Yen, etc. A few of these people have been around the bush before too. When it comes to surviving financial catastrophe perhaps they can teach you something and I bet it will involve silver. 'The cleanest shirt in the dirty pile' has no meaning to over 80% of the worlds population. They are looking for their car keys...

Try to sell your silver. Shops will give you way under spot or won’t buy it. They feel it’s unstable.

The Central Banks easy money policies are coming back to bite them now. Way too much loose money sloshing around from years of endless QE and ZIRP has driven just about everthing into historic long bull markets and bubbles even though the economic situation doesn't support it.

Copper is up because it is SECOND MOST CONDUCTIVE metal to Silver. Not only is Silver ESSENTIAL for all NEW Ai and technology development and advancements, COPPER is the MOST VIABLE SOLUTION if Silver becomes more scarce & expensive. Copper is the NEXT LEADING choice if/when physical silver becomes a challenge to secure for whatever reason.

Thank you

Well, considering NOW, 800 million oz of silver is being mined but we consume 1.2 Billion oz NOW…you are missing a huge reason for the price increase.

The price of gold and silver hasn’t gone up. It’s the value of the paper that has gone down. Simple purchases are ridiculously high! We pay $3 for a can of Coke in Canada and $2+ for a chocolate bar. $80 for silver is a deal 😂

I have been building a house since 2022. My wiring cost was 100% over budget from my original plan when I wired this year.

17😂😂😂😂 there is absolutely no fundamentals or charts that support that. Could it drop in half yes.

Interesting analysis

No one is talking about the elephant in the room LITHIUM prices

Don't forget geopolitical chaos causing commodities prices to increase.

The perception is demand for physical silver is growing quickly in a world where ore produced is not keeping up. EVs, new batteries, new solar panels etc. all using more silver. Refining of ore done in China which has new export controls on silver in place. Asian demand driving prices. Gold is a different game.

Beverage Curve Pringles Crazy Repeats

This guy obviously doesn’t know anything about commodity. Unsub

I think part of the gold not following silver (and copper but that has more industrial uses) is the fact Venezuela has the largest gold reserves and well, those are at play as is the crude.

Crude, I think people are considering the potential conflict resurfacing between Iran and Israel which if does flare up will more now than ever likely lead to a shutdown of the persian gulf and maybe the red sea again (which is why you see the arab counties starting to fund rebel terrorists in Yemen again as away to potentially stop the houthis from having the time to sink ships / knock down 1-2 reaper drones a week)

Jeff 👍

Great video Jeff.

Safe haven of Gold... Thanks I was expecting serious inflation as gold and silver went up... I thought it would hurt the dollar versus BRICS