Commodities For 2026 (Oil, Gas, Gold, Silver, PPGM, Copper, Lithium, Iron, Food, Fertilizer)

Sven, thanks for the video.
Regarding gold, you often say that value investing can do better. However, investors like Michael Burry have chosen to sit this one out, saying there is no safe harbour for the foreseeable future.
How do you think value investing can outperform gold, which historically performs well during times of economic crisis and uncertainty?

Hello - as now to start new year can do video on best balance for investments and holdings by major sectors. What is your portfolio balance now at end of yr for next yr with your companies moved in there key sectors - like us stock value, growth, real estate, foreign developed, foreign emerging, commodities, cash, treasuries, etc . I know you are value company investor but still could create sector balance so i could use etf’s for this balance? Maybe here as last yr u mention crash but as you say can’t predict so u probably favor some short 3 to 6 month treasuries- what percent so if have crash after levels off then can move these into value area. Thanks

Oil prices are likely to rise in mid‑2026 for three main reasons:

1. Oil, like other raw materials such as copper and aluminium, cannot be recycled.

2. U.S. shale production is declining.

3 Global producers are unable to increase output to the levels projected by the IEA, falling short by roughly 0.5 million barrels per day

lithium has no future, now that China has begun massive production of sodium-ion batteries

I've been a commodity trader for 35 years working for investment banks and private commodity traders and I don't disagree with any of Sven's analysis.

Way to go Sven

I seem to have done well with precious mental miners in 2025.

I’m up 167% on Sigma Lithium and 150% on Albemarle after some well timed investments this year. In 2026 I’m waiting for oil prices in the 40-50 dollar range. Thanks for the video, Sven!

I’ve been positioning in Platinum since 2020. I mentioned Platinum to you earlier this year saying it was just breaking out. You said you didn’t like it due to the economic situation in China. Platinum is up about 140% this year. Focus on China is focus on the wrong thing. Check the gold to platinum ratio. Check the silver to platinum ratio. Platinum is still cheap.

betting on gold simply because trump is too volatile, always a surprise around the corner with him at the helm

hypocrisy,,,, that you do not discuss insurance on this channel. Yet, this past year, you discussed insurance against your portfolio by buying puts and even suggested up to 5% of the value of your portfolio. I have invested in gold for decades. And PM’s should always be part of one’s allocation. To suggest that you are aligned with Buffet and do not invest in gold is a bit rich. Buffet has 300+ billion in short term US treasuries and did not invest a penny into gold stocks (he did years ago own a gold stock for a short period of time). But gold is not akin to a pet rock. It has a store of value. The companies are leaner and many pay dividends. Central banks have bought significant amounts of gold re geopolitical risk as well as fiat currency debasement and moving away from US treasuries. If you are going to tout other “commodities” why in the world would you state that gold coins are insurance and you do not discuss insurance? Very narrow minded and you and your followers missed out. Gold is unpredictable and I have cut down my positions in gold stocks without changing my allocation towards bullion. This is an example of preservation of wealth, rebalancing one’s portfolio and of course…..having some insurance.

Oil is cheap for a reason. For as long as humans have used oil it came out of the ground. But for the last 15 years or so you can create oil from anything (coal, natural gas), and as long as oil is more than $55, its not worth it anymore, just create oil out of other substances. The thing that has changed in the last few years is that more modern refineries has come online which reduces the price. Meaning if oil is too expensive its cheaper to just "make" gas, disel and jet fuel. However if oil is cheap, like it is now its worth it to buy oil. But people who think oil will go back to the 100s, don't get it, its cheaper to produce oil from other substances so its not going to 100. You can still make money in oil stocks, since they are all changing to modern refineries. But don't blindly buy anything because the price is low, cause its low for a reason.

ENI SPA!

Why not 20% in commodities?

gold miner stocks are skyrocketing as well

Sven, maybe you could cover the chemical sector. I bought a Polish company, PCC.WA, and I’m looking forward to your opinion on the sector.

Love oil here from Norway

Just my opinion, in a changing world, way off on gold and silver. Gold as a hedge against hyperinflation of fiat currency and the silver world has changed momentously, with all the current technology trends depending on its industrial applications (solar panels, electronics, and the new coming solid state batteries which use about 4.4 lbs of silver versus the current 2 ounces).

10 percent....lol 🤣

All this mayhem in the oil shipping industry will bring back $100 per barrel oil.

Thanks for the video Sven. In the natural gas section you talk a lot about LNG, but i think there could be value in US producer EQT for domestic market (not LNG). They are selling for a P/E of 17,5 TTM with Nat Gas around 3$ (the low for the year 2025). My expectation is for their earnings to rise even if spot prices drop 20% (4.42$ currently). It's a very volatile stock, but i sense some asymmetry in the risk/reward profile, in a context of growing demand for electricity in the US.

Exxon is selling for half its net value. In 5 years you’ll prob have at least double even now at current prices!

I am not a great believer in gold but I am a retired Canadian, living in Canada with most of my money is in US T-bill etfs and I was forced to buy a physical gold etf to off set the sinking USD.

Silver is in a 5 year deficit and more and more silver is needed.
Silver production is inelastic beause only 40% comes from silver mines and since 10 years no more output.
Silber is a strategic metal used up in many applications and NEEDED for any price.

Gold is tax free and more than 8% p.a.
Read In Gold we trust report by Incrementum to learn more

Not taking uranium into consideration it's not good

Oil was down with wars in Russia and Iran.. if the venezulan market open up the price is never coming up strongly again

🗽 That's right, you don't invest in gold, you have it when you need it! You need it in a crises, in a crash...
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yes youre right ! this is the one i love the most ♥♥

🗽Commodities and Energy for 2026... 💪
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Sven, I hear that from the production of 800 mio units the demand has increased to 1.3 bio for silver due to strong demands in new technologies and atomic plants. What is the basis of the 20 $ you have shown.

Since US came off the gold standard in 1971 it has gone up 110x. During the same timespan the Dow Jones Average increased 55x.

Nickel inventories are high from Chinese controlled over production in Indonesia. When you look at the producer cost curves 20-25% are under water and mines have closed or put into care and maintenance. My thoughts are it is in the lower prices cure lower prices realm. 
Yeah very few pure play nickel operations out there. Junior miners in stable jurisdictions are presently a high risk super high reward plays. Government support in the US and Canada will most likely turn a few projects into reality. Government money always creates distortions.

Arcadium Lithium, doubled my money but that was more luck than skill

A review of midstream would be greatly appreciated not as price sensitive high dividend ..even a breakdown on upstream mid stream and down stream ..appreciate your thoughts sir ?