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Rob Berger

Rob Berger

296,000 subscribers

👁 29,613 views

Are Index Funds Too Risky Now That They're Packed With AI Stocks? (FQF)

Video Overview & Insights

This week in Five Question Friday (FQF):

I know the audio on this video was terrible. I do believe I've fixed the issue for next time.

— @rob_berger

Question 1: Are index funds now too concentrated in AI stocks?

Question 2: Should you accept Fidelity's pitch to move $600,000 into a separately managed account (SMAs)?

I generally don’t mind paying a little extra in taxes as long as it goes to a good cause

— @PowellPeraltask8er

Question 3: Why does a TIPS fund like IBIG yield about 5% when an individual TIPS yields less than 3%?

Question 4: Should your asset allocation adjust for taxes you'll eventually pay on IRA withdrawals?

Regarding Question 4, Rob's advice was spot on, but I don't think his argument was very convincing. With respect to Roth vs. Traditional IRAs, asset location has little or no bearing on asset allocation. Imagine a scenario where you happen to have $500K in a Roth account and $500K in a Trad IRA account. Furthermore, imagine both accounts are equally split between stocks and bonds. Assuming the investments are identical between the two accounts, your stocks will grow just as quickly (or slowly) in the Roth account as in the Trad account and your bonds will grow just as quickly (or slowly) in the Trad account as in the Roth account. I can't predict how well or how poorly your investments will perform over time, but if you leave everything as is, your Roth balances will track your Trad balances. Any time you choose, you can effectively relocate stocks from the Trad to the Roth while relocating an equal value of bonds from the Roth to the Trad without tax consequences. How? Just go into your Roth and exchange bonds for stocks, then immediately go into your Trad and exchange stocks for bonds. No distributions, no withdrawals, no taxes. You can do it tomorrow, and maybe you should because in the long run asset location actually does matter: you'd rather concentrate long-term growth in the account that allows tax-free withdrawals.

— @stephenshefsky5201

Question 5: Why do retirement calculators like Boldin, Pralana, and ProjectionLab give such different Monte Carlo success rates?

Resources

In SMA, I donated my NVDA to my DAF and used cash to buy back the position in the SMA (obviously not in an IRA). You can also pick out a big winner with unrealized capital gains for a charitable gift annuity.

— @Eric-wc7lx

My video on after-tax asset allocation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGhk2V_M308

My Boldin vs. Pralana vs. ProjectionLab comparison: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPQNF-r_5jw

why not invest in a weighted index like rsp instead of voo so the heavy it companies dont affect it?

— @brianm2238

S&P 500 concentration (RBC, "The Great Narrowing"): https://www.rbcwealthmanagement.com/en-us/insights/the-great-narrowing-sp-500-concentration

Current S&P 500 weights (Slickcharts): https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500

I added some SCHD to my portfolio to diversify away from VTI / VOO, different top 10. Rob's the best and such a pro. Wouldn't miss the Friday questions for anything. Thank you for what you do.

— @kw7292

Fidelity Managed FidFolios (direct indexing): https://www.fidelity.com/managed-accounts/managed-fidfolios

iShares iBonds Oct 2030 Term TIPS ETF (IBIG): https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333128/ishares-ibonds-oct-2030-term-tips-etf

Rob, I know you answer to "everybody," but I think you missed a great bit of knowledge specific to that first question. Specifically, the question was about his young daughter being afraid of a downturn (in the sp500.) A very important idea, specifically for young investors (with a lot of risk capacity,) is that a market downturn is GREAT for them. They have an opportunity to buy ever more stocks/funds on discount.

I talk to so many young wouldbe investors afraid of putting beginner money into the market because of slight pullbacks. They never see the bigger picture of just how beneficial it will be to DCA through downturns in their early investing decades.

— @danh2716

5-Year TIPS real yield (FRED): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII5

TIPS funds, phantom income, and taxes (Tipswatch): https://tipswatch.com/2026/05/24/ishares-target-date-tips-etfs-are-growing-in-appeal-but-i-have-cautions/

Automagically 😂

— @zachariegrim7779

"After-Tax Asset Allocation," William Reichenstein (Financial Analysts Journal, 2006): https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=922293

Tax-adjusted asset allocation (Bogleheads wiki): https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tax-adjusted_asset_allocation

Thanks for making SMA actually understandable.

— @davidbundesen5867

*Join the Newsletter. It's Free:*

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I was using Vanguard's advisory service for a few years and I noticed that they were putting my money in ETFs that were not making much returns compared to other ETFs. It seemed to me they were using customer money to boost certain ETFs. I asked my advisor to sell those shares and put them in a few others I picked out. He refused so I fired them and started managing my own money. My returns have skyrocketed and the performance line has been going up at a 45 degree angle ever since.

— @EatLeadPal

*Financial tools I use:*

*I track all of my investments, performance, fees, and asset allocation with Empower. It's Free:*

#1. I wish was a young person again, knowing what I now know. Yes. Buy the index. Buy when it's up. Buy more when it's down. And don't stop. Just keep buying.

— @TimC-ps3re

https://go.robberger.com/empower/yt-

*I use Monarch Money to manage our budget:* https://go.robberger.com/monarch-yt/yt-desc

Thank you Rob Burger

— @paulrusofficial

*My retirement plan comes from Boldin, the most robust retirement planner available at a reasonable cost:*

https://go.robberger.com/boldin/yt-

Not only should there be a discrepancy between two different products doing monte carlo, unless you are running in a debug mode, you should have discrepancies between different simulation runs on the same product. In monte carlo simulations, consistency screams you done messed up.

— @glensmith491

*I used Capitalize for my last 401(k) rollover. They did all of the work, and it's Free:*

https://go.robberger.com/capitalize/yt-

For the first question, the person asked whether the S&P 500 is right for a young person. With many more years to let it grow, I think the S&P500 is fine. Of course, if the person needs the money in the very near future, then going with cash or an equal-weighted fund might be suitable.

— @JC-life-is-good

*My Book (Retire Before Mom and Dad):*

https://amzn.to/4d9qbhA

oh wow you picked the perfect questions #2 ,#3 and #4) in this video. thank you! Audio was fine but the camera was not.

— @wilma6235

#retirement #investing #robberger

0:00 Intro

IBIG and the rest of the IShares IBond family ETFs list the real yield on the right a little below the yields you showed. In the case of IBIG it is currently 2.06% It makes it a little easier to compare against an actual TIPS bond.

— @redvudu1013

1:06 AI concentration in index funds

8:43 Fidelity's separately managed accounts (SMAs)

There are several things you can do to deal with the market being overvalued. First: use extended market funds or tilts like VIOV (excellent fund). Then rebalance into VTI as it inevitably fails to match your other indexes. Because it IS inevitable. Option 2: do nothing and continue DCA into VTI. When 2040 hits you will be very happy.

— @BillyCarsley

17:06 TIPS fund yield vs. an individual TIPS

21:58 Before-tax vs. after-tax asset allocation

3:16 The ai bubble is completely predictable. It's going to happen sooner or later (probably sooner), and both the total market index, and the S&P 500 index are going to completely tank. With all do respect, Rob, making decisions isn't as scary as you make it out to be.

— @TimSchlee

26:07 Why retirement calculators disagree (Monte Carlo)

ABOUT ME

I would have made the point in answering #1 that because of the age of the daughter, the short-term issues aren't really an issue if she keeps dollar cost average I vesting over the next 20 years she'll get the benefit of the highs and lows....as everyone who knows anything says, it's all time in the market, not timing the market...

— @Kornheiser10

While still working as a trial attorney in the securities field, I started writing about personal finance and investing In 2007. In 2013 I started the Doughroller Money Podcast, which has been downloaded millions of times. I've since sold my websites, bought them back, and started a new website and this YouTube channel.

I'm also the author of Retire Before Mom and Dad--The Simple Numbers Behind a Lifetime of Financial Freedom (https://amzn.to/3by10EE)

I just wish Boldin would allow using either historical IRS tax tables as an option or, and this is more difficult, allow the user to set their own Federal tax bracket breakdowns. Why? Simply, I would like to see what going back to tax rates from earlier federal tax rates, with the expectation that our future tax rates will go up, to see what a better expectation of my Roth conversion benefits will be. Choose an historical IRS tax table, chose a start year in the future and then run my conversion scenarios.

— @scottturnquist9478

LET'S CONNECT

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC9C17-OMxa-7oRSaCtztObw?sub_confirmation=1

Concentration on SP500 in my opinnion just means it will have more volatility, we have to asume it to create a diversified portfolio that matches the volatility objective we want in global.

— @belzoni1

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financialfreedomguy/

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Robert_A_Berger

Concentration is how you beat the market and retire early. AI is just getting started.

— @idiocracyIsInevitable

DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial adviser. These videos are for educational purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. Your investment and other financial decisions are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research and seek professional advice as necessary. I am merely sharing my opinions.

*Disclosure*: Some of the links in this description are from partners who compensate us. This means — at no extra cost to you — I may earn money if you click and sign up for a product or open an account. This creates a financial relationship that may influence my recommendations, but I only recommend products and services I believe in and would recommend to my own mom. Advertisers have no control over my content. Read the full advertiser disclosure here: https://robberger.com/how-we-make-money/

"Stick to index funds" "but hey don't now because this time i actually know which sectors and stocks will be the winners"

The same ppl who will call u names for picking stocks or sectors a few years ago..

— @AshknKW

More User Perspectives

@

If your asset allocation percentages are important to you, you should absolutely be doing it on an after-tax basis. The taxes are directly tied to the performance of your portfolio. Other taxes such as real estate and sales taxes are completely independent of your portfolio's performance; you will incur those costs no matter what and the amount owed will not fluctuate based on your portfolio balance. Ignoring the tax implications of your portfolio is like saying that the tax consequences of your portfolio are not a significant issue. That it's harder to calculate doesn't make it irrelevant. Btw, it's very easy to do, at least to get a ballpark estimate, which is far better than simply ignoring the issue. I personally don't place a high priority on a specific asset allocation so although I track it on an after-tax basis, I'm not doing much rebalancing. But if you do place a high priority on a specific asset allocation, you should seriously consider performing it on an after-tax basis.

@GaryOgata
@

There are an infinite number of ways to get American stock exposure without so exposed to the AI bubble

@johnwhite2576
@

Anyone worried about concentration in a market-cap-weighted index clearly misunderstands its purpose. Whether the market is dominated by one company or evenly distributed across 500 is beside the point. The goal is to own the entire market, regardless of how that market is weighted and shifts over time.

@snagboi
@

"I don't blame Fidelity."
Wow. That is way genorous - those assumptions are pretty manipulative.

@mattball2700
@

Regarding first question. For a new investor a global etf is probably best, American market is not only extremely concentrated and expensive but its also being manipulated by the regime. Nvidia, Intel being extorted by the fuhrer, rules being changed for regime members along with competition being blocked etc

@GlutenFreeCracker
@

"The large print giveth and the small print taketh away" is a famous line by Tom Waits from his 1976 song "Step Right Up".

@LarkOfTheWoods
@

Man, seeing Lucent in the 2000 list! I worked for them. I was able to pull out $20k of company stock to facilitate a move around that time, and thought I was dumb for cashing that out. But then watched the rest of it become worthless. Felt smart, later!

@toddbarney4738
@

The worry about concentration shows how easily people are manipulated by recent media. This is simply not something 99% of people would worry about without the constant click bait that is the title. “It’s at an all time high since 1990”. Um. Ok. And….what? There is some odd idea that the concentration was “right” before now making it….”wrong” now? We are in the age of data slop in media and especially social media. Something “is highest/most/biggest/whatever ever” leaving the reader to conclude (via simply human behavior of wanting to complete an incomplete pattern) that it’s bad and we should “do something!” Data slop manipulating people.

@rickmc73
@

“Tax loss harvesting” is not a benefit as they put it. It means you just lost real money, plus their fees for how many years you have been paying it, plus the commission they earn when they bought the investment and again when they sell it based on your instructions ☹️

@philip5899
@

Another term for well diversified is diworsification, which is what we typically find occurring when comparing the total returns of a diversified portfolio vs the S&P 500 over extended periods of time. The S&P 500 has weathered multiple market cycles and keeps chugging along. Its the benchmark for a reason.

@soBeItKryptonite
@

AI is like electricity or other utilities. Few companies actually create AI “utility” relative to (eventually) all companies who will use it. So when worrying about an AI bubble, you need to worry about a flood of new AI only infrastructure companies who are getting funded with tons of capital and have a high stock price without a real or proven product and not being profitable. Kinda like what happened leading up to the 2000 crash for internet companies. So far, I don’t see that in AI.

@BNB2322
@

Rob, I love your common sense approach to all things financial. We can over analyze at times and you bring us back down to earth. But I now have to figure out my after grocery allocation!!🤣

@buffmay1666
@

On question #4, the most important point is that your asset allocation is pretty much arbitrary anyway. People pick some fairly meaningless percentages and then try to stick to it. So who says that 60/40, 50/50, or 75/25 shouldn't be 62/38, 47/53, or 77/23? Tweaking these numbers for after tax doesn't make them any more accurate given that they are pretty meaningless to begin with.

My point is this... If you start with a total guess and then use it as the basis for a bunch of complex taxation calculations, what you end up with is still just a total guess.

@mtslyh
@

I'm really struggling with exactly how to diversify. I've found surprisingly few resources that suggest proportions of types of investments within the equity portion. I moved some of my s&p500 into a large cap value fund (VVIAX) to reduce my Mag 7 exposure and i increased my international holdings, but I have no idea if those are good proportions, whether I should have more small and mid cap, etc.

@jeninphx
@

I was in Fidelity SMA large cap index for a couple years (roth ira). It under performed the s&p 500 and charged a higher fee to do it. I got out at the beginning of this year. Now I'm 25% in FINLX & SCHD, 15% In FZILX & SCHG, 10% SCHH & SCHA. It has less volatility and higher returns so far this year. Mainly due to SCHD and FXILX.

@brianarby5954
@

To Miriam and/or her daughter: Note that you can get the ETF with ticker "RSP", which is an equal-weighted version of the SP500. Maybe that would address her concentration risk concerns.

Interestingly, over the past 22 years or so, RSP and VOO (equal-weighted SP500 vs. market capitalization weighted SP500) show little difference in total returns. If she is, say, < 50 years old, the thing that's really going to make a difference for her is getting into the stock market and staying in it (via dollar cost averaging), and just staying in the market through the inevitable ups and downs.

@davidpierce3217
@

Thank you in advance for spending time to fix the sound! Otherwise, another great video! Thanks, Rob!

@Tvlbug3587
@

The video looks better today. Audio seems fine.

@lacroix_man
@

This is a subject not discussed enough. We pulled out of AUM last year and we're left with almost 30 funds after the proprietary funds were sold. It's a very slow process to bring the allocation back to something reasonable.

@kimjeffs7787
@

Hold RSP (equal weight S&P ETF) to offset your ETF holdings in S&P and QQQ if you are worried about concentration risk in a big sell off - but still want to be invested in the broad market. Better to hold RSP in a tax advantaged account because of the higher turnover and rebalancing every 6 months.

@brianminster1407
@

AOL #10 in 2000. World sure changes.

@flyguy2021
@

Great content and practical advice as always Rob. Keep up the goos work. All the best!

@williamfrench3796
@

The concentration risk around tech was quite surprising to me (Q.1)! Thanks for bringing this to light! I wonder if moderating the risk with an S&P equal weight fund might be useful? Nonetheless, thanks Rob again for this insight. I have some homework to do!

@fototx66
@

@Rob Berger @Robberger Back on 12/20/23 you did a video that had an in depth look into your portfolio. The name was "5 Investing Challenges for 2024 + My Portfolio Review" Can you do an updated in depth look at your portfolio now?

@davidw1732
@

I suggest VTI rather than VOO. That gives you total market exposure with a “baked in” foreign element since many US companies generate revenue and earning from their international presence.

@ron8566
@

Another good question is the trailing and forward P/E ratios now versus historical ratios.

@ron8566
@

Question 2: Don't do it! Stick with low expense ratio index funds!!! I agree with Rob!

@janc.8197